Saturday, November 30, 2013

[video] Quick Take: Macy's CEO Breaks Down Black Friday

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Many stores opened their doors this year on Thanksgiving to get an edge on the competition. TheStreet's Laurie Kulikowski is with Terry Lundgren, CEO of Macy's (M), to discuss the kickoff of holiday shopping. 

Lundgren said 15,000 people were lined up at 8 p.m. on Thanksgiving Day, besting last year's line of 11,000 people at midnight. 

Clearly, the demand for a Thanksgiving open was there, he said. 

He added that coats and boots seemed to be doing well and that Black Friday would remain the most important day for Macy's in terms of sales.  Consumers seem to be becoming more aware that there are six fewer shopping days between now and Christmas, Lundgren said, making this weekend's sales even more important.  Macy's is the largest carrier of top brands, like Michael Kors (KORS) and Polo Ralph Lauren (RL).  But they also carry and sell more value-oriented brands too, he said.  Regarding mobile shopping, Lundgren suggested that more shoppers are browsing online, but coming into the store to get a better feel for what they're buying.  He concluded that Macy's seems to be taking market share from all of its competition right now, including department stores and speciality stores. -- Written by Bret Kenwell in Petoskey, Mich. Follow @BretKenwell

Friday, November 29, 2013

Late-payment rate on mortgages at 5-year low

LOS ANGELES (AP) — Fewer U.S. homeowners are falling behind on their mortgage payments, aided by rising home values, low interest rates and stable job gains.

The trend brought down the national late-payment rate on home loans in the third quarter to a five-year low, credit reporting agency TransUnion said Tuesday.

The percentage of mortgage holders at least two months behind on their payments fell in the July-September quarter to 4.09% from a revised 5.33% a year earlier, according to the firm, whose data go back to 1992.

The latest rate also declined from 4.32% in the second quarter.

The last time the mortgage delinquency rate was lower was the third quarter of 2008.

Within a few years of setting that mark, foreclosures began to mount as home values tumbled from housing-boom highs, leaving many homeowners in negative equity — owing more on their mortgage than the value of their home. The dynamic drove mortgage delinquencies higher, peaking at nearly 7% in the fourth quarter of 2009.

The rate of late payments on home loans has been steadily declining over the past five quarters. At the same time, U.S. home sales and prices have been rebounding over the past two years, while foreclosures have been declining.

Moderate but stable job gains, still-low mortgage interest rates, and tight supply of homes for sale have helped fuel the housing rebound. That's also made it easier for homeowners to refinance, catch up on payments or sell their home, avoiding foreclosure.

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Even so, the mortgage delinquency rate is still above the 1 to 2% average historical range. That suggests that many homeowners still are struggling to make their payments. It also reflects that many home loans made during the housing boom remain unpaid but have yet to work their way through the foreclosure process.

Loans made in the years after the housing bo! om are generally being paid on time, so as more of the older loans listed on banks' books as unpaid get resolved, the overall mortgage delinquency rate should continue to decline, said Tim Martin, group vice president of U.S Housing for TransUnion's financial services business unit.

"The new mortgages are still performing very well, at very low delinquency rates," Martin said. "That's why we're expecting more improvement to come."

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TransUnion forecasts that the national mortgage delinquency rate will drop to just under 4 percent by the end of year.

All the states posted an annual drop in late-payment rates during the third quarter, with California, Nevada, Arizona, Colorado and Utah registering declines of more than 30 percent.

TransUnion draws its data from 52 million installment-based mortgages in the U.S.

Thursday, November 28, 2013

Safety in Numbers With This Pipeline Play

File:Alaska Pipeline Closeup Underneath.jpg

Source: Wikimedia Commons.

They say two (or more) is better than one, and that seems to be the case for these companies that are working together to accomplish a common goal.

A foursome 
Enterprise Products Partners (NYSE: EPD  ) , Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC  ) , and DCP Midstream, a joint venture between Spectra Energy (NYSE: SE  )  and Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX  ) , are about to complete the Front Range pipeline, which will run from the DJ Basin down to the Texas Express pipeline. It will be able to carry 150,000 bpd of natural gas liquid (NGL) with the possibility to increase that to 230,000 bpd if production keeps increasing. Front Range is expected to come online in the forth quarter of 2013. 

This pipeline venture is a great idea for several reasons. Anadarko needs to get its NGL to a buyer, so it needs to be able to ship its NGL to refineries on the coast. Enterprise Products Partners is seeking growth by building new pipelines, so it's happy to invest with an E&P player to help Anadarko out and profit at the same time. For DCP, Spectra needs NGL to move/store and Phillips 66 needs NGL to process into a final project.

All four players benefit from this project and stand to profit from the creation of the pipeline. There is no reason why it always has to be a dog-eat-dog world; companies are fully capable of working together to achieve a mutually beneficial goal. 

Add in one more
The purpose of the Front Range pipeline is to connect the DJ Basin to Texas, but it only goes part of the way. To get the NGL all the way there, Enterprise Products Partners, Anadarko, Phillips 66, Spectra (through DCP), and Enbridge Energy Partners (NYSE: EEP  ) are working together to build the Texas Express pipeline.

Texas Express will carry NGL all the way down to Texas to be processed and is expected to come online in the forth quarter of 2013, in conjunction with the Front Range pipeline. The Texas Express will have the capacity to move 280,000 bpd of NGL, with the possibility to increase that to 400,000 bpd as market conditions dictate.

All five of these players want the same thing, to get NGL to Texas. They all stand to see significant increases in their cash flow as a result. Whether it's the fees to move the NGL, the ability to sell NGL for the highest price possible, or having more NGL to process into a final product, all of these companies rely on each other.  

Going solo
Enterprise Products Partners is also building out pipeline capacity by itself. Rising production from the Rocky Mountain region means more pipeline capacity needs to be brought online to move the additional output.

Enterprise Products Partners is going to increase the capacity of its NGL Mid-America Pipeline from 275,000 bpd to approximately 350,000 bpd, and the increased capacity will come online in the second quarter of 2014. The pipeline transports NGL down to Texas to be refined. The additional capacity will enable Enterprise Products Partners to capitalize on multiple NGL plays and will increase its cash flow as well. That will allow it to continue to increase its capacity around America and boost its 7% distribution.

Final thoughts
America is a great country, built on the back of competition. Sometimes, though, companies can work together to boost their bottom lines and increase cash flows. This is the case for these energy companies, and the several joint ventures that they are invested in will increase value for shareholders.

More ways to profit from America's energy boom
Record oil and natural gas production is revolutionizing the United States' energy position. Finding the right plays while historic amounts of capital expenditures are flooding the industry will pad your investment nest egg. For this reason, the Motley Fool is offering a comprehensive look at three energy companies set to soar during this transformation in the energy industry. To find out which three companies are spreading their wings, check out the special free report, "3 Stocks for the American Energy Bonanza." Don't miss out on this timely opportunity; click here to access your report -- it's absolutely free. 

Sunday, November 24, 2013

Janet Yellen: Background And Philosophy

President Barack Obama nominated Janet Louise Yellen on Oct. 9, 2013, to become the next chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, succeeding Ben Bernanke, who will remain a board member until 2020. Obama called Yellen "one of the nation's foremost economists and policy makers" who was "renowned for her good judgment." Her term beginning Feb. 1, 2014, lasts four years and can be extended by the president then in office. Yellen shares many of the same views about the U.S. economy as Bernanke, and most economists expect a fairly seamless transition from his leadership to hers. Her first major decisions will deal with the Fed's current economic stimulus policies and the unemployment rate.

Background and History

Janet Yellen was born into a middle-class Jewish family in Brooklyn, N.Y. on Aug. 13, 1946. Her mother was a teacher and her father was a doctor, and she eventually became editor of the Fort Hamilton High School newspaper, from which she graduated as valedictorian. She graduated summa cum laude with an economics degree from Brown University in 1967 and went on to receive her Ph.D. from Yale University in 1971. She then worked as a professor at several prestigious universities, including Harvard, The London School of Economics and the University of California at Berkeley. In 2004 she became president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, where she has been credited with foreseeing the subprime mortgage crisis more accurately than her peers.

She has also been a member of a number of economic committees and councils, including the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the U.S. Council of Economic Advisors and the American Economic Association. She served as a governor for the Federal Reserve Board from 1994-97 and has also been an advisor for the U.S. Congressional Budget Office. She was a research associate for the National Institute of Economic Research and was on the board of directors for the Pacific Council on International Policy. She ! has also held fellowships for the National Association of Business Economics, MIT and Guggenheim.

Her most recent tenure has been as the Fed's vice chairman, to which she was appointed for a four-year term on Oct. 4, 2010. This date also marked the beginning of a 14-year term that she will serve simultaneously as a Fed board member. Yellen has used her position to convince the Fed to use a 2% annual target for inflationary growth. The Democrats urged Obama to appoint Yellen as chairman instead of former Secretary of the Treasury of the United States Larry Summers due to her "impeccable resume, focus on unemployment and solid record as a bank regulator."

Philosophy

Like her predecessor, Yellen has been a strong dove, although many of her peers maintain that this has simply been due to current economic conditions, and that she could become a hawk under appropriate circumstances. She will also be the first democrat to chair the Fed in nearly 30 years, although she has backed Bernanke's bond-buyback program and is expected to continue to enact and perhaps even expand an economic stimulus policy to boost the economy. She has sought to emulate the philosophy of James Tobin, an economist who believed that an economy can be rescued from recession through governmental intervention.

She and her husband, George Akerlof, are both Keynesian economists who believe that economic markets are fundamentally flawed and need governmental regulation to function correctly. They both created economic models showing how firms seeking to maximize profits would pay higher than minimum wages. This model was a rebuttal to conservatives such as Robert Lucas, who mandated that flexible wages and prices would allow the economy to revert to form more easily after market upheavals. These models helped to form the foundation of the New Keynesian philosophy.

Yellen is also clearly willing to allow a measure of inflation to achieve economic growth and thus reduce unemployment, which signals that she may leave interest rates unchanged for the foreseeable future. She has indicated in more than one speech that she feels interest rates should in fact be held at zero for the time being, even if inflation rises by more than 2%. She also intends to tighten financial and banking regulations to prevent the past from repeating itself.

Yellen mirrors Bernanke's cautious approach to dealing with the public, using meticulously researched data and a technocratic manner to minimize surprise announcements or other releases that could roil the markets. She is strongly dedicated to providing transparent communications and will have the central bank release more detailed data to the markets to! help achieve this.

The Bottom Line

Time will tell how the economy fares under Yellen's guidance. Her proponents have said that they did not back her simply to put a woman in the chairman's seat for the first time in the 100-year history of the Board, but because they are convinced she is absolutely the best person for the job. In a recent interview with CNN Money, Yellen stated, "At the highest levels of central banking, there are very few women … but I am pleased that the representation of women is increasing a lot at other levels ... I really think this is something that's going to increase over time, and it's time for that to happen." For more information on Yellen and the Federal Reserve Board, visit www.federalreserve.gov.

Saturday, November 23, 2013

Shutdown subplot: N.C. parkway inn reopens

Near MOUNT PISGAH, N.C. — A day after preparing to close for the rest of the season, workers at the Pisgah Inn were back on the job, and the inn's owner claimed victory in his showdown over the federal shutdown.

Inn owner Bruce O'Connell said Wednesday the Interior Department of Interior agreed to let him reopen his lodge on the Blue Ridge Parkway in exchange for dropping a legal complaint he had filed.

STORY: Workers weigh options as shutdown lingers
STORY: Inn's act of defiance lasts about 2 hours

The government owns the building and land. O'Connell leases it, and his family has run the inn at milepost 408.6 about 25 miles southwest of Asheville, N.C., since 1978.

Park Service rangers had blocked the 51-room inn's driveways since Friday when O'Connell defied the shutdown order that has left other park concessionaires closed across the USA. The parkway itself remains open to travelers. Rangers turned customers away at the inn's entrances.

O'Connell said he has heard from thousands of people since making his stand. His story caught fire on social media with tweets and Facebook posts decrying the government's move to close the business. He said the support has been humbling.

"I've heard from liberals, and I've heard from conservatives," he said. "I've heard all of them, from everybody. They all have said the same thing, every one of them: Don't give up. Fight tyranny. That tells me that if someone threw a match in the middle of the country it would explode right now."

The inn's workers, who have lost almost a week of income during a peak tourism month, were glad to be back at work Wednesday.

“I've heard from liberals, and I've heard from conservatives. ... They all have said the same thing, every one of them: Don't give up. Fight tyranny. ”

— Bruce O'Connell, Pisgah Inn

Customers stopped longtime server Dennis Rimides as he walked to the dining room through the parking lot. They all wanted to know what had happened.

"What wonderful news," one woman said when he told her the inn was open again.

The inn will stay open until Nov. 1, its normal closing date, no matter what continues to happen — or not happen — in Washington.

"It feels as good as an opening day if not better," Rimides said.

The uncertainly of the past five days was wearing on the staff, he said. The inn employs about 100 people, and 35 live on the property.

Gay Huff of Jackson, Miss., and her husband, Perry, stopped as they traveled up the parkway from Cherokee, N.C., where they were staying. They were not aware the inn had been closed but said they have been disappointed with the shuttering of the nation's parks. Cherokee is one of the gateways to Great Smoky Mountains National Park, also closed in the shutdown.

"For any of it to be denied to the general public turns me inside out," she said. "It is a personal violation that is hard for me to contain or even express."

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Florida resident Kenneth Davis showed up in mid-afternoon wanting a piece of the inn's French silk pie for his wife's birthday.

The dining room wasn't open yet, but inn manager Rob Miller walked back to the kitchen and got him one for free. Everything reopened at 5 p.m. Wednesday.

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Davis also doesn't like the shutdown's closure of the parks.

"I think it's being carried a little bit too far," he said. "They need to get their act together and get things straightened out."

Unlike national parks with gates and entrance fees, the Blue Ridge Parkway — and other federal parkways including Natchez Trace in Mississippi and Tennessee, John D. Rockefeller Jr. Memorial Parkway in Wyoming and George Washington Memorial Parkway in Virginia — is not closed to traffic. But National Park Service visitor centers, historic sites, campgrounds, picnic areas and ! restrooms! along the route are shut down.

That includes the only other privately run inn on the Blue Ridge Parkway, the Peaks of Otter Lodge at milepost 86 near Bedford, Va. It closed at 6 p.m. Thursday as ordered and has been telling guests with paid reservations that they will get refunds if they are unable to change their reservations.

General Manager Robert Peters of the Peaks of Otter Lodge was watching the situation with the Pisgah Inn closely Wednesday.

"I'm glad that they can re-open. We're in a holding pattern," he said, waiting word from National Park Service officials and his bosses at Delaware North Cos., which manage several properties for the Park Service. "We'd love to be open, too."

Normally, 88 people work at Peaks of Otter, which has a lodge, restaurant, country store and a shuttle bus with tours to the top of Sharp Top Mountain.

"We were sold out every weekend. The weekdays were filling up," Peters said. "We were fully staffed and ready to go. Unfortunately, with the shutdown, it kind of halted everything."

The lodge had planned to operate through Dec. 1.

If Pisgah Inn can operate, Peters said he hopes Peaks of Otter Lodge can reopen soon as well.

Contributing: Julie Ball, Asheville (N.C.) Citizen-Times; Linda Dono, USA TODAY. Jon Ostendorff also reports for the Asheville Citizen-Times.

Pisgah Inn's Facebook page on Oct. 9, 2013.(Photo: Facebook)

Friday, November 22, 2013

Cable stocks surge on takeover chatter

time warner cable stock

Click the chart to track shares of Time Warner Cable.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) Consumers love to hate their cable companies, but there appears to be a love triangle in the air between three of the industry's giants: Charter Communications, Time Warner Cable and Comcast.

Charter Communications (CHTR, Fortune 500), the fourth largest cable provider with just over 4 million subscribers, has reportedly been in talks with major banks to borrow money to fund a possible bid for Time Warner Cable (TWC, Fortune 500), the second largest cable company with over 11 million subscribers.

But according to a source familiar with the matter, Time Warner Cable has reached out to Comcast (CMCSA, Fortune 500) for a possible deal. There are currently no ongoing conversations though, the source added. With over 21 million subscribers, Comcast is the nation's largest cable provider. (Time Warner Cable was spun off from CNNMoney owner Time Warner (TWX, Fortune 500) in 2009.)

Time Warner Cable and Comcast declined to comment, while Charter could not be reached.

Shares of Time Warner Cable jumped almost 10% on the chatter, while Comcast and Charter shares also gained ground. Another smaller cable company, New York-based Cablevision (CVC, Fortune 500), shot up on the reports as well. Cablevision has long been considered a takeover target.

Citing people familiar with the situation, the Wall Street Journal said Charter has held talks with Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500), Barclays (BCS) and Deutsche Bank (DB) to help come up with financing for a Time Warner Cable bid.

The company may also be reaching out to sovereign wealth funds and wealthy individuals to help pay for the buyout without taking on too much debt. Time Warner Cable is worth $34 billion -- almost three times as much as Charter.

Media mogul John Malone's Liberty Media (LMCA) is the largest shareholder in Charter and Malone has been a loud supporter of more consolidation in the cable industry, which is facing rising costs in programming.

Plus, cable companies are worried about losing subscribers, as some consumers cut the cord and shift to devices like Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500) TV and Roku as well as streaming video services like Aereo, Netflix (NFLX), Hulu and Amazon's (AMZN, Fortune 500)' Prime Instant Video.

While speculation of a deal has been rising for several months since Malone became a shareholder of Charter, the financing efforts represent "perhaps the most concrete step discussed to date," said Nomura analyst Adam Ilkowitz in a note to clients.

!

He expects Charter will have to raise about $25 billion in total -- $15 billion in debt and $10 billion in cash from other sources.

A merger between the two would likely save $500 million in programming expenses a year, Ilkowitz said.

But IHS cable networks analyst Erik Brannon said those savings may or may not trickle down to consumers, given the rising expenses and intense competition among cable providers.

Netflix on your cable box? It may happen   Netflix on your cable box? It may happen

Meanwhile, further consolidation between the nation's largest cable providers could raise concern among government regulators -- most notably the Department of Justice and the Federal Communications Commission. Citing unnamed sources, CNBC reported that Comcast is seeking advice on antitrust and FCC concerns.

A merger between Comcast and Time Warner Cable would result in one company with over 32 million subscribers, or nearly a third of all cable subscribers, Brannon said. But he doesn't think a merger between the two is likely.

"I don't think it makes sense for Comcast at this point," he said, noting that Time Warner Cable has been losing an average of about 175,000 subscribers per quarter recently. During the third quarter alone, the company lost a startling 306,000 subscribers due to its month-long fight with CBS (CBS, Fortune 500). "There isn't much upside versus the expenditures Comcast would have." To top of page

Thursday, November 21, 2013

Exxon Mobil: Did Warren Buffett Just Invest In a Value Trap?

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over daily movements, we do like to keep an eye on market changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

U.S. stocks broke their three-day losing streak today, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.8%. The narrower, price-weighted Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI  ) gained 0.7%, closing above 16,000 for the first time.

Last week, I highlighted three reasons why Warren Buffett bought ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM  ) for Berkshire Hathaway's (NYSE: BRK-B  ) equity portfolio. (He did so in size, too -- the position was valued at $3.4 billion at the end of the third quarter.) This week, short-seller Jim Chanos, who famously bet against failed energy company Enron, offered a few reasons of his own -- for steering clear of the shares, characterizing ExxonMobil as a "value trap." Is Mr. Chanos right? Did the Oracle of Omaha just make a monumental mistake?

At the Reuters Global Investment Outlook on Tuesday, Chanos described his negative thesis regarding the energy supermajor's business and its stock:

In terms of the integrated oil companies, the business demonstrably has gotten worse and it's for a simple reason: the cost of finding and replacing reserves has gone up. Let's just use Exxon as an example. Their revenues are down year-over-year yet the amount of capital they've employed in the business continues to grow. Their cash flow has dropped dramatically and, where in the past Exxon had been able to finance dividends and its buybacks out of free cash flow, it's no longer able to do that. It only basically finances half of that (dividends and buybacks).

Exxon used to have returns on capital of around 30% -- an amazingly profitable business. Well, it's been cut in a third in the past year. Now it's about 20%. So, it's telling you that on the margin, these companies are increasingly finding it difficult to cheaply replace reserves. And, I've basically called them 'liquidating trusts'. They're not the values they used to be. They're having now to borrow to finance a lot of the financial engineering that they're doing to keep their shares up at the same level.... It's not a value stock, it's a value trap.

Presented with Buffett's investment, Chanos replied: "He's got his reasons but unmistakably the returns are dropping." Let's be clear: The only reason Warren Buffett buys a stock in size is because he thinks he will make market-thumping returns over a very long period of time.

I don't disagree with many of the points Chanos makes in the two paragraphs above. Many are simply factual observations one can quickly verify by looking at the company's financial results. But I disagree with his conclusion: Yes, profitability has dropped and, yes, ExxonMobil may no longer be the value it used to be. Nevertheless, a 20% return on capital remains well in excess of ExxonMobil's cost of capital. Furthermore, the company does not need to deliver the same returns it has produced since 1970 (a better than 375-fold total return) in order to provide investors with a more than adequate return during the next 40 years.

Finally, costs outpacing revenues is not an irreversible trend, contrary to Mr. Chanos' implicit line of reasoning. Hydrocarbon resources are in finite supply, yes, and the price of extracting dwindling reserves may increase. I want to emphasize may -- this isn't a matter of certainty -- not for some time, in any case; but oil prices aren't static, either. As Mr. Buffett's longtime right-hand man, Berkshire Hathaway vice-chairman Charlie Munger told an investment conference this summer: "Oil is absolutely certain to become incredibly short in supply and very high priced... The oil in the ground that you're not producing is a national treasure."

Did Warren Buffett just invest in a value or a value trap? Jim Chanos is a very astute investor, certainly someone you don't want to dismiss out of hand; but I'm siding with Mr. Buffett here.

Three energy growth plays that can power your portfolio
One criticism that is often leveled at ExxonMobil: It doesn't have enough exposure to the "shale revolution," whereby record oil and natural gas production is transforming the United States' energy position. Finding the right plays while historic amounts of capital expenditures are flooding the industry will pad your investment nest egg. For this reason, the Motley Fool is offering a comprehensive look at three energy companies set to soar during this transformation in the energy industry. To find out which three companies are spreading their wings, check out the special free report, "3 Stocks for the American Energy Bonanza." Don't miss out on this timely opportunity; click here to access your report -- it's absolutely free. 

Wednesday, November 20, 2013

Cal-Maine Foods Earnings Fall; Meets Estimates (CALM)

On Monday, Cal-Maine Foods Inc (CALM) reported lower first quarter profits as its production costs increased.

The Jackson, MS-based company reported first quarter net income of $8.8 million, or 36 cents per share, down from $9.4 million, or 39 cents per share a year ago. On average, analysts expected to see earnings of 36 cents per share.

Total revenue for the quarter rose 17% to $319.5 million from $272.9 million last year.

CALM reported that its feed costs rose 7% during the quarter, but the company is expecting these costs to fall for the rest of FY2014.

Cal-Maine has also declared its next dividend payment of 6.8 cents. This dividend will be paid on November 14 to shareholders of record on October 30.

Cal-Maine Foods shares were mostly flat during pre-market trading Monday. The stock is up 22% YTD.

Tuesday, November 19, 2013

5 Rocket Stocks for Another Week of New Highs

BALTIMORE (Stockpickr) -- Last week came with some strong performance for stocks -- the S&P 500 managed to rally 1.56% between Monday's open and Friday's close, shoving the big index to a new all-time high.

But as well as the S&P performed last week, one small set of stocks managed to do better -- a lot better. I'm talking about our weekly list of Rocket Stocks.

Last week, our pared down list of plays returned 3.63%, besting the S&P's run by more than 200 basis points. That brings Rocket Stocks' total outperformance over the S&P to a hefty 91.3% over the last 223 weeks, a pretty strong record over an already stellar period to own stocks.

To make the most of that performance now, we're taking a closer look at five new Rocket Stock names worth buying this week...

For the uninitiated, "Rocket Stocks" are our list of companies with short-term gain catalysts and longer-term growth potential. To find them, I run a weekly quantitative screen that seeks out stocks with a combination of analyst upgrades and positive earnings surprises to identify rising analyst expectations, a bullish signal for stocks in any market. After all, where analysts' expectations are increasing, institutional cash often follows.

Without further ado, here's a look at this week's Rocket Stocks.

T-Mobile US

2013 is panning out to be a great year for shares of T-Mobile US (TMUS) -- since the $21 billion cellular carrier officially went public earlier this year, its share price has climbed more than 57%. Even though T-Mobile is only the number-four carrier here in the U.S., its comparatively small business gives it the ability to grow at a breakneck pace. And with more than 1.1 million new customers added to the carrier in 2013, TMUS is living up to the hype.

T-Mobile US is the result of a combination of legacy T-Mobile and discount carrier MetroPCS. T-Mobile got a spectacular deal on MetroPCS' customer list – the micro-carrier traded for a tenth of the premium per user on the big names like AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ). By joining forces, T-Mobile now serves 43 million customers across the two brands; as the firm unifies its business under the T-Mobile banner, shareholders should see some big efficiency improvements.

TMUS has been working hard to incent customers to come over. It's done that by investing heavily in widening its LTE footprint, and by making it easier to bring devices over to its network. The decision to offer tablet users a free 200MB per month data plan is likely to draw plenty of new devices to TMUS at a very low customer acquisition cost.

If T-Mobile can build a reputation as the value carrier in a commoditized space, expect the growth pace to continue.

Micron Technology

As impressive as T-Mobile's rally has been in 2013, it doesn't hold a candle to the momentum in shares of Micron Technology (MU) this year: since the calendar flipped over to January, Micron's share price has exploded by 207%. And with the way this stock is positioned right now, it's not too late to take the reins in Micron.

Micron is a computer memory maker that until recently was best known for manufacturing RAM for PCs. But the company has spent the last several years building its flash memory business, a switch that exposes Micron to a far more lucrative niche. Flash memory is a supply constrained business -- it's costly for newcomers to try to ramp up production, and the surge mobile device purchases has driven demand for NAND flash memory through the roof. That's helped Micron collect heftier prices and deeper margins for its efforts.

Most of Micron's flash memory customers are original equipment manufacturers, not consumers. Those OEM connections are a big advantage because they keep sales efforts minimal. Instead, the firm just needs to keep creating flash technology that device makers want. The increasing use of flash memory in enterprise settings (such as servers) is another big trend that's helped to propel Micron's share price in 2013.

Chipotle Mexican Grill

There's no question about it -- Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) is the most attractive name in the most attractive corner of the restaurant business. Chipotle operates 1,500 restaurant locations in 43 states, Canada, the UK, France, and Germany. CMG's positioning in the fast-casual category has been a huge driver of its success -- as consumers look for quick, non-fast food options, the Mexican food chain has been there to take their dollars.

In the last few years, Chipotle has been one of the fastest-growing restaurant chains in the country. A focus on quality is a big differentiating factor -- while rumors abound about what's actually in fast food chains' burger patties, CMG happily advertises its use of naturally-raised meats, hormone-free dairy, and organic produce. Yes, quality ingredients are expensive to source, but they're one of the only factors that truly differentiates Chipotle from the competitors who have sprung onto the scene in the last decade. A look at CMG's earnings show that those costs aren't exactly hurting profitability; net margins are consistently in the double-digits.

That quality focus extends to Chipotle's balance sheet. Chipotle has primarily financed its growth with cash from operations, keeping its debt load at zero with around $840 million in cash and investments on its balance sheet. There's no question that this isn't a cheap stock right now, but with plenty of expansion opportunities in the years ahead, the premium on shares still looks justified. The momentum is certainly still intact.

Juniper Networks

Juniper Networks (JNPR) is the biggest underdog in the competitive IP networking market. While most investors fixate on standard-bearer Cisco Systems (CSCO), Juniper has been gaining market share and building its war chest. Now, this $10 billion tech name looks well positioned to benefit from big tailwinds pushing the IP networking business forward.

Juniper designs and sells hardware and software that enable IT infrastructure to communicate and remain secure. The firm has a stellar business in supplying carrier routers, telecom equipment that's been in high demand thanks to network expansion efforts from telcos. Enterprise IT appliances are another key to Juniper's growth strategy -- even though Cisco is the 800-pound gorilla in the room, JNPR has been able to take a bigger piece of the enterprise appliance business in recent quarters.

Despite its comparatively small size in the industry, JNPR sports healthy levels of profitability and a huge $3 billion net cash and investments balance. That mountain of dry powder is enough to cover a full third of the firm's current market capitalization, providing a big risk reduction over the firm's near-$20 share price. With rising analyst sentiment coming into JNPR this week, we're betting on shares.

Home Depot

Home improvement giant Home Depot (HD) remains one of the best ways to harness the relative strength of the housing market right now. Home Depot owns more than 2,250 big-box stores spread across North America, supplying tools and materials for home construction, remodeling, and maintenance. As homeowners continue to spend money on home improvements into 2014, HD will continue to benefit.

While most shoppers think of Home Depot as a purely retail operation, the firm's wholesale construction buyers offers a multiplier when the housing market is strong. After a relatively painful restructuring in the wake of the Great Recession, HD has improved efficiency considerably and made margin strides that most other retailers would kill for – increasing reliance on private-label brands should continue to hold net margins high.

Growth opportunities look big for HD right now, especially in the Mexican market. The firm's foray into China was considerably less successful, and it should be enough to keep Home Depot focusing on the markets it knows in 2014 – that's a good thing, particularly for shareholder value, especially for those who buy now.

To see all of this week's Rocket Stocks in action, check out the Rocket Stocks portfolio at Stockpickr.

-- Written by Jonas Elmerraji in Baltimore.

RELATED LINKS: >>4 Stocks Under $10 to Trade for Breakouts >>2 Airline Stocks You Really Should Own in 2014 >>Why You Should Buy Hedge Funds' 5 Favorite Stocks

Follow Stockpickr on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

At the time of publication, author had no positions in stocks mentioned.

 

Jonas Elmerraji, CMT, is a senior market analyst at Agora Financial in Baltimore and a contributor to TheStreet. Before that, he managed a portfolio of stocks for an investment advisory returned 15% in 2008. He has been featured in Forbes , Investor's Business Daily, and on CNBC.com. Jonas holds a degree in financial economics from UMBC and the Chartered Market Technician designation.

Follow Jonas on Twitter @JonasElmerraji

 


Monday, November 18, 2013

Modest Risks, Modest Returns from Merger Fund

Does a stock fund that consistently generates low-single-digit returns deserve a place in the Kiplinger 25? The answer, we think, is yes—if the fund in question practices a strategy that's so tame that its risk profile is closer to a medium-maturity bond fund's than a stock fund's.

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At issue is the performance of Merger Fund (MERFX), which over the past year has returned a piddling 3.0%, 15.2 percentage points less than Standard & Poor's 500-stock index (all returns are through September 13). As its name suggests, the fund invests in companies that will soon merge or be acquired. But rather than aiming for a killing by trying to identify future buyout candidates, Merger invests in a targeted firm after a deal is announced and its share price has jumped sharply (as often happens). The fund's goal is to capture the final bit of appreciation between the post-announcement price and the price at which the deal is consummated. The fund's success, or lack thereof, depends primarily on the ability of its managers, Roy Behren and Mike Shannon, to invest in deals that go through. "We're selective," says Behren. "We're not an index fund of merger transactions because that's where we add value."

That's largely because broken deals often end in big drops in the share price of the formerly targeted company. If the managers were to invest in every announced deal, Behren says, the bets would work out 90% of the time. But the losses due to the broken deals would be so large that they'd offset much of the gains reaped from successful deals.

Behren and Shannon have a success rate of about 98%. They invest in 40 to 60 deals at any given time and typically see just one to three of them fall apart per year.

They also are careful to avoid deals that don't offer a meaningful potential return for the risk that the transaction will fall apart. Leveraged buyouts sometimes fall into this category. One such deal: In late May, Apax Partners, a U.K.-based private-equity firm, announced that it would purchase Rue 21, the discount fashion retailer for young men and women, for $42 a share and take it private. But two days after the deal was announced, Rue 21's stock closed at $42.03. It subsequently dropped below the deal price, but never far enough below it to provide Shannon and Behren enough potential gain to offset the risk that the share price could plunge if the deal collapsed.

Meanwhile, the managers have earned solid returns in some recently closed deals. The pair bet on BMC Software earlier this year after a group of investors led by two private-equity firms, Bain Capital and Golden Gate Capital, announced that it would take private the business-services software company. The deal closed in May, and the fund made about 7% on an annualized basis. More recently, Shannon and Behren bought shares in Astral Media, which was coveted by Bell Canada for its specialty TV channels and radio stations. The deal, first announced in early 2012, nearly fell apart when Canadian regulators expressed objections in October 2012. But after consulting telecom lawyers in Canada, the pair felt comfortable that Bell Canada "was committed to the transaction and was willing to make the changes to get approval from regulators," says Behren, and they even picked up more shares in Astral Media. In the end, they were right. Bell agreed to sell some of Astral's TV channels and radio stations to seal the deal—and Merger earned a 12% annualized return when the transaction closed in June.

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The managers say low interest rates are hobbling returns. That's because the potential gain from investing in a target after a deal is announced is connected to rates. A typical gain ranges from two to five percentage points above the yield of ten-year Treasury bonds, which Behren and Shannon use as a proxy for the risk-free rate of return. Thus, low rates have meant lower returns for practitioners of merger arbitrage. That also means returns should rise as interest rates do. "We would expect our returns to increase in such an environment," says Behren. He and Shannon joined the management firm, Westchester Capital Management, in the mid-1990s, and contributed to the fund as researchers and traders. They were named co-managers in 2007. .

That makes the fund a great portfolio diversifier, and many advisers are investing in Merger as a hedge against rising rates. "Some advisers use the fund as an alternative investment or a market-neutral strategy," says Behren, "but the latest trend has been to use it as a bond fund substitute."

Over the past five years, Merger has been 18% less volatile than the typical taxable intermediate bond fund (and about 80% less jumpy than the S&P 500). Merger has also posted lower returns: Its 3.3% annualized gain over the past five years trails the results of taxable intermediate-term bond funds by an average of 2.2 percentage points per year and of the S&P 500 by an average of 5.3 points per year. But if interest rates do continue to rise—which would certainly hurt bond funds and could help Merger—those relative standings could change quickly.



Saturday, November 16, 2013

Chicago Booth Claims MBA Stock Picker Victory

CHAPEL Hill, N.C. (TheStreet) -- The University of Chicago's Booth School of Business defeated 14 of the nation's top MBA programs Friday in a stockpicker competition in Chapel Hill, N.C.

Students Kyle Akin, Aaron Bianco and Mac Elatab cruised to a unanimous No. 1 performance in the final round of the Alpha Challenge as judges from various asset management firms favored the Booth team's mock pitch to take a long position on DigitalGlobe (DGI) and a short position on GenCorp (GY).

The event, hosted by the University of North Carolina, showcased top student talent, many of whom said they hoped to eventually work in investment management.

It was a "great" contest with a high level of competition and challenging questions from the judges, Elatab said. When asked if his Booth team would celebrate the victory, Elatab chuckled and said, "I think there's a Tar Heels game in town." Each business school represented consisted of three MBA students, who received a universe of 90 publicly traded companies on Nov. 3 and submitted by Nov. 11 a power point presentation pitching one company to "short" and one company to hold "long." Friday morning featured a preliminary round of 15 teams, including Yale University, University of Virginia's Darden School of Business -- who finished second and third, respectively -- UNC's Kenan-Flagler Business School and Columbia University, among others. The 15 teams were split into four different groups, in which they presented a 15-minute verbal pitch and answered judges' questions for an additional 20. The top team from each group advanced to the final round. Judges throughout the tournament represented buy-side firms, including Fidelity Investments, T. Rowe Price, Carlson Capital, William Blair, and others. Shares of DigitalGlobe, a provider of government and commercial earth imagery products, gained 3.6% to close Friday at $36.81. Aerospace and defense manufacturer GenCorp tacked on 0.4% to 17.69. -- Written by Joe Deaux in Chapel Hill, N.C. >Contact by Email. Follow @JoeDeaux

Friday, November 15, 2013

IOS 7 is here: A whole new iPhone experience

ios7 review

The new iOS 7 iPhone software not only has a new look, but Apple successfully addresses many long-standing issues.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) Your iPhone is about to get a giant makeover: Apple is pushing out iOS 7 to iPhone users on Wednesday.

The new iPhone operating system is the most substantial update in the software's history. Apple not only added new features and functionality, but the company radically reinvented the six-year old operating system's appearance.

For the most part, Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500) succeeded in making iOS easier on the eyes and simpler to use. Apple trimmed the fat where necessary and added some meat to areas that were lacking.

New look: The most noticeable difference in iOS 7 is the design. Gone are the core apps that look like real-life objects. In their place is a far more modern, streamlined, flatter digital aesthetic.

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Apple didn't eliminate depth and texture altogether, but it redefined how it uses those effects. For instance, Apple made some menus and features appear translucent, like a frosted sheet of glass. That not only provides a stylish touch, but it produces a layered effect to help visualize how different parts of an app are linked, and how they are separate.

Inside Apple's new iOS 7   Inside Apple's new iOS 7

You'll notice this everywhere from the home screen icons to the design of the lock screen to the screen that shows up when you receive a call. But the way you use those elements is more or less the same as before.

Related story: Hits and misses of Apple's new iPhones

!

And there are still touches of the old version of iOS throughout the new iOS 7. For example, the Messages app still uses speech bubbles, and the camera app still uses an on-screen shutter button. But the look of those features has been spruced up as well.

There was a time when Apple had to demonstrate how its flat, glass screen could replace many self-contained gadgets people already owned. So everything had a glassy, textured layer applied to it. The calendar had to look like a paper calendar. The compass had to look like something you'd see in a 16th-century Spanish galleon.

Now that the vast majority of us understand our smartphones, Apple has been able to ditch those visual analogs and become truer to its sleek, modern hardware.

New features: Perhaps the most useful addition to iOS 7 is Control Center. It's your metaphorical junk drawer full of settings, media playback controls, and shortcuts to utility apps, like the clock, camera and calculator. You can now also toggle the LED on and off from control center, functioning as a de facto flashlight. And it's easily accessible: just swipe up from the bottom of the screen.

Control Center isn't a revelation: Having quick access to Airplane Mode, Wi-Fi and Bluetooth is something that's long been on Android. But it's a welcome addition -- and frankly should have already been added to iOS a long time ago.

Related story: Apple will never make a cheap iPhone

Siri's functionality has been expanded some. It can now be used to search for Wikipedia and Twitter. That's nice, but it's still no Google (GOOG, Fortune 500) Now, which can tell you to leave home earlier than usual because there's an accident on the freeway.

The new weather app in iOS 7 is more informative than ever, and the App Store can automatically update your apps.

The Photo app has mostly been changed for the better by automatically arranging your photos according to time and place. But the new shared photo streams addition! felt inc! omplete. It allows multiple people to share and comment on photos -- think of it as a remixed version of group MMS. But with so many people already using Apple's iMessage to share photos, it's unclear why people are supposed to use the new feature.

The Notification Center in iOS 7 now has three separate sub-pages, making it feel more bloated and confusing than its previous iteration. For example, if you don't use a calendar, one of the sub-pages is just a completely empty screen.

Question marks: Apple overhauled multitasking in iOS 7, giving apps the ability to fully run in the background. That means apps like Twitter and Facebook will be able to automatically update their feeds without you having to open the app. Apple even promises that iOS 7 will learn which apps you use the most, when you use them, and will make sure they're always updated at that time. But it will be hard to tell how well this feature will work until app makers begin to support it.

iPhones 5C and 5S good enough for Apple   iPhones 5C and 5S good enough for Apple

Airdrop is Apple's file sharing protocol, allowing iPhone users to share photos, contacts and things like passbook cards with one another. In theory, it is a wonderfully simple way to transfer files. But you can't use it with the Mac version of Airdrop. And the main appeal of Airdrop seems to be photos -- which is confusing since that's what shared photostreams are for. Until there is a critical mass of people running iOS 7, it's hard to gauge how useful Airdrop will be.

Bottom line: Despite a few hiccups in execution, Apple has successfully re-thought iOS for the better.

The biggest achievement of iOS 7 is Apple's willingness to acknowledge that it's immensely successful hardware had gone a bit stale. Apple had the awareness and courage to make some major ch! anges wit! hout doing anything so drastic that it risked alienating its user base.

IOS 7 isn't perfect, but it's still as worthy a mobile OS as Google's Android. IOS 7 lays down the foundation for the next five or so years that will allow Apple to keep the iPhone feeling modern and progressive. To top of page

Thursday, November 14, 2013

5 Stupid Wall Street Sayings

fortune_cookie_630Being more than 200 years old, the stock market has had time to foster a staggering number of axioms, tips, disciplines and lessons. Indeed, one thing there’s never a shortage of on Wall Street is advice.

Unlike stock trading itself, though, all that advice and all those commonly accepted truisms are neither regulated nor tested. Anyone can write and publish an investing book, and it’s even easier to post trading tips and lessons online. No premise actually needs to be verified to be made public, and even when a premise is supported by facts, those facts are rarely verified.

The end result? There are a bunch of short-sighted — and downright bad — investing adages floating around in the proverbial ether. Some are more misleading and destructive than others, but five of them are particularly problematic for investors who have a tendency to believe, and act on, everything they hear.

‘Buy companies, not stocks’

bullseye pinpoint on target 630This might have been solid advice a couple of decades ago when a stock’s price was a reflection of a company’s operation, slightly adjusted higher or lower depending on the organization’s plausible outlook.

But that’s not how stocks are priced in the modern era.

For better or worse, the stock market in the 21st century is something of a chess match, where you’re trading largely based on how you feel the rest of the market is going to feel about a stock anywhere from five days to 12 months down the road. That shell game doesn’t leave much room for an actual value-based assessment of a company’s operation.

Most mainstream investing books still don’t acknowledge this reality, but veteran traders know it’s how the game is played these days.

‘The market is rigged’

trader charts 630The market may be tricky, inconsistent, exhausting, unduly-influenced, erratic and unpredictable, but it’s not rigged.

That’s going to be a tough pill to swallow for a few traders who are convinced they’re on the wrong end of too many losing trades because someone is conspiring against them. But the sooner they can come to grips with the truth, the sooner they can come to grips with the real reason they’re struggling to stay afloat in the world of stock-picking.

In reality, most traders (and new traders in particular) lose because they actually believe this business is as simple as it appears when looking in from the outside. It’s not unlike the joyous, easy-winning picture the casinos paint when encouraging consumers to take a quick trip to Las Vegas.

‘In the long run, value outperforms growth’

clock passage of time 630Aside from sticking with safe and stable names simply as a way to maintain your sanity, the industry often encourages a focus on value stocks by noting they actually yield better bottom results over the long haul. Problem: It’s only true sometimes. Other times, it’s completely untrue.

It’s been especially untrue the last few years. Since this point in the year back in 2003, the iShares Russell 1000 Growth Fund (IWF) has advanced 81%, while the iShares Russell 1000 Value Fund (IWD) has only advanced 67%.

In another 10-year segment, value might lead growth again, or it might not. That’s just it — the landscape of what works and what doesn’t is forever changing.

‘It’s a takeover candidate’

business handshake 630Odds are that you’ll never successfully step into a stock right in front of an acquisition for any reason other than luck. Suitors make a point of keeping the lid on M&A plans specifically to avoid front-running a buyout and driving up a price. And, in the rare case where news of an impending buyout is leaked, there’s always someone with closer ties that can act on the information sooner than you can (assuming you’re not in those particular board meetings).

And just for the record, theme-based buyout speculation doesn’t improve your chances of picking an acquisition target. Back in 2012 after Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) bought Amylin for control of its diabetes pipeline following the purchase of Neighborhood Diabetes by Insulet (PODD), pundits were sure it would spark a wave of other diabetes-driven acquisitions. Those other M&A candidates began getting bid up, but as it turns out, no more meaningful buyouts materialized in the diabetes space.

Ditto for the gene-mapping mania that was sparked by the Roche (RHHBY) acquisition of Illumina and the GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) purchase of Human Genome Sciences. By the time the gene-mapping M&A trend became obviously hot, the trend was over.

‘There’s always a bull market somewhere’

bull at bombay stock exchange 630There’s actually a little bit of truth to this axiom that Jim Cramer turned into an outright cliche. There’s an important footnote missing from the idea, however.

While there might always be a bull market somewhere, there’s not always a bull market in the arenas where the average investor can actually invest. In 2008, for instance, stocks, gold, oil, real estate and even bonds lost value over the course of most of 2008.

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Yes, all of those areas eventually recovered, but they all fell — a lot — in tandem for a long, miserable time.

As of this writing, James Brumley did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.

Tuesday, November 12, 2013

Interim BlackBerry CEO could get $87 million

john chen

John Chen turned around at Sybase, and he's trying to do the same at BlackBerry. He stands to gain millions if he succeeds.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) Anyone willing to attempt the turnaround of long-struggling BlackBerry is a brave soul indeed. But the man tasked with the job could wind up being compensated very handsomely for his efforts.

BlackBerry's new executive chairman John Chen -- who is also serving as the company's interim CEO -- will receive a $1 million annual salary and a performance bonus of $2 million, according to regulatory documents filed recently.

But Chen's real chance to make big bucks comes in the form of 13 million restricted shares of BlackBerry, worth about $84.4 million as of Monday's closing price. And that's a very depressed price. Shares are down 45% this year. If Chen actually rescues BlackBerry, these restricted shares could be worth a lot more.

However, Chen will have to stick around for three years to get 25% of those shares, four years for the next 25% and a full five years for the remaining 50%.

Related story: Corporate daredevil John Chen may turn BlackBerry around

Chen could still get a nice payday -- albeit not $87 million -- if he leaves the company.

If Chen is terminated "without cause," which is often the case even when a CEO is essentially fired, he will continue to receive his $1 million annual salary through the remainder of the year in which he left the company. On top of that, he'll receive an extra award of two times his base salary and two times his bonus, for a total of another $6 million.

BlackBerry (BBRY) is, at least temporarily, pinning its hopes on Chen, who successfully turned around the struggling enterprise software maker Sybase and sold it to SAP (SAP) in 2010.

Related story: Where BlackBerry's ousted CEO went wrong

The previous BlackBerry CEO, Thorsten Heins, is due $12.3 million in severance after being ousted last week. BlackBerry announced Heins' firing along with the news that the company is no longer seeking a buyer.

Instead BlackBerry's largest shareholder, Fairfax Financial, said it would invest $1 billion in the company. To top of page

Monday, November 11, 2013

Risk of hiring veterans ‘overblown,’ experts say

The way Margaret Plattner sees it, veterans are a good investment for employers.

"They've had leadership training, discipline training, they know how to be at work on time, they know how to be responsible," said Plattner, deputy commissioner of the Kentucky Department of Veterans Affairs.

But sometimes, veterans entering the civilian workforce have to overcome stereotypes that they might be unreliable, or even violent, due to combat-related stress or mental illness.

And that's generally unfair and unfounded, experts say.

"There clearly are some employers who get nervous about veterans because they've seen the media and kind of the sensationalized cases, and they think it's probably going to happen to them," said Tony Zipple, president and chief executive of Seven Counties Services in Louisville.

But even veterans with a mental illness "aren't likely to explode in the way you see on TVs and (in the) movies," said Eric Russ, a licensed clinical psychologist at the University of Louisville. "That kind of behavior is very rare."

Just as with civilian hires, he said, "You might not even know that someone you're working with or someone you know is suffering."

Still, mental health issues, along with blast wounds, have been called the "signature injuries" of the military conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Last year, a report from the Institute of Medicine noted that an estimated 13 percent to 20 percent of the 2.6 million U.S. service members who'd served in Iraq or Afghanistan since 2001 may have post-traumatic stress disorder, a condition marked by flashbacks, avoidance and being easily startled.

And earlier this year, USA TODAY reported that mental-health problems, such as PTSD, led to more hospitalizations than any other medical condition in the military in 2012. In some cases, troops remained hospitalized more than a month.

Zipple said that while veterans are more likely to suffer from PTSD, depression, substance abuse and anxiety-related condition! s than the general population, that doesn't "necessarily make them any worse or any riskier of a hire."

"A very, very large cross-section of the general population has some combination of these same conditions as well," Zipple said. "If you said we're not going to hire anybody that has an issue with depression and takes an antidepressant, you'd have big chunks of the population that would never work again."

Millions have PTSD

About 7.7 million U.S. adults — or about 3.5 percent of the American adult population — have post-traumatic stress disorder, according to the National Institute of Mental Health. Mood disorders, including chronic depression and bipolar disorder, affect about 20.9 million U.S. adults, or about 9.5 percent of the U.S. adult population.

Anyone can develop PTSD after a traumatic event, such as a car accident or a natural disaster, said Tom Lawson, an Army veteran and professor in UofL's Kent School of Social Work. "That doesn't mean that you're still not a good employee or cannot work."

Former Marine Rebecca Munoz, photographed Monday, Nov. 4, 2013, stands outside of the VA Hospital where she is currently a peer support specialist.(Photo: Alton Strupp, The (Louisville, Ky.) Courier-Journal)

Rebecca Muñoz, a Marine Corps veteran who has dealt with mental illness, puts it this way: "I am Rebecca who happens to have a diagnosis and that's all it is. It's like having diabetes, high blood pressure — no different. That's all it is."

Furthermore, "most veterans come back without any diagnosable mental illness," said Russ, an assistant professor in the UofL Department of Psychiatry. For those veterans who need help with PTSD, depression and substance abuse, "we have a much better understanding of a! ll of the! se conditions than we did say, for example, in Vietnam," Russ said.

And "the outlook is really good if they get treatment," he said. "The longer you go with an untreated illness, the more likely it is to interfere with your life," leading to job loss or other problems, such as troubled relationships with friends and spouses.

Muñoz, 41, of Louisville received treatment from the Veterans Affairs Medical Center to cope with bipolar disorder, also known as manic-depressive illness. The condition, which causes shifts in mood and energy, had led other treatment providers to tell her to stop trying to find work and file for disability instead.

But with help from the VA Medical Center's Compensated Work Therapy program, she was able to control her illness and now works as a peer support specialist for the VA, helping other veterans recover from mental illness.

Through her work with the VA, Muñoz said she's found that employers often are willing to make adjustments to help a good employee. For example, they may let PTSD sufferers who don't like loud noises wear headphones. "There are ways to advocate for yourself and there are places who can help you advocate for yourself," she said.

Army veteran John Penezic, 46, of Louisville said some veterans choose to cope with their symptoms by isolating themselves in some way. For example, he avoided fireworks shows for years because the "booms" would eat at him and crowds made him uncomfortable. Also, after ending his 16-year military career in 2008, he would gravitate toward jobs that would allow him to work around other veterans such as doing outreach with homeless veterans for the Volunteers of America of Kentucky.

"Many veterans feel that 'Civilians won't understand me,'" said Penezic, who's dealt with PTSD symptoms for years but never been formally diagnosed.

Finding a good match

When looking to hire a veteran — or anyone else — it's important to look at various factors to determine whether the person is a good m! atch, Zip! ple said. "If they've got the qualifications and they've got good work experience and they've got good references, I wouldn't think of them as being any riskier (of a) hire than anyone else in the general population," he said.

Furthermore, "if they're getting decent supports and services, if they're getting good treatment, there's no reason why they can't be hugely successful in every walk of life," he said.

Sunday, November 10, 2013

Could A U.S. Hit on Syria Propel Crude to $150?

The hour of reckoning that will bring with it a military confrontation between the U.S. and Syria's Assad regime -- and even more dauntingly, potentially pitting American and European forces against Russia's military -- may be close at hand.

You're of course well aware of the civil war that has raged in Syria for nigh onto two years, resulting in more than 100,000 deaths in the country and creating millions of refugees in neighboring Jordan, Turkey, and Lebanon, among other spots. And, clearly, it was the alleged unleashing of chemical weapons by Assad's minions east of Damascus that may have broken the camel's back. If so, it would be by crossing a red line that President Obama had established a year ago this month against the use of those hideous weapons.

Crude scrambles northward
We can point to a host of offshoots from Syria's conflagration and its attendant human tragedies. As investors, we needn't have a wise elf tap us on the shoulder and point out that crude prices have moved steadily upward as concern has mounted about a U.S. military involvement in the country's tragedy. Indeed, both Brent crude -- typically traded in Europe -- and West Texas Intermediate were catapulted to higher ground in early trading Wednesday.

We also don't need that same cuddly elf for awareness that energy has been steadier of late than most other sectors. While the ultimate magnitude of crude's rise will depend upon a host of factors, including the intensity and duration of any U.S. involvement in Syria, it's also obvious that the oil price rise has been affected by events in Egypt as well.

While neither Syria nor Egypt is a major crude producer, both represent the importance of what those in real estate refer to as location, location, location. Egypt controls the Suez Canal, through which something less than 10% of crude traded in commerce passes daily. That may not sound like much, but remove it from total global supplies, and in a world with a close supply-demand balance, watch Brent and WTI scurry still higher.

Bowing out of Egypt
It's also noteworthy that Egypt shares a western border with Libya, which is a significant producer, but where chaos and contretemps also reign. Is it any wonder, then, that Chevron (NYSE: CVX  ) announced on Tuesday that it will unload its Egyptian downstream operations, including 66 service stations and a couple of oil depots, to Total (NYSE: TOT  ) ? The French company is also buying the retail assets in the land of the Sphinx from Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS-B  ) . Perhaps it knows something of which the rest of us are unaware.

Syria's location is no less consequential. It borders on majority-Shiite Iraq, which has itself been descending steadily in uninterrupted internecine attacks. And with the Syrian majority Sunni population, Iraq's Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is more than a little interested in perpetuating a maintenance of the Alawite branch of Shiite Islam embodied by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Shiite Iran also shares that interest, and will do all it can to back the Assad regime. Can you say Strait of Hormuz? The rogue country already has its Hezbollah proxy making mischief in Syria.

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A catastrophic confrontation with Russia
Then there's Russia. On Syria's Mediterranean coast (not far from where four U.S. destroyers are now prowling) sits the city of Tartus, which, among other things, includes a Russian naval base. Putin and his pals have already warned Washington that a U.S. attack on Syria would be "catastrophic." At this juncture, we can only wonder whether fisticuffs between the U.S. and its traditional rival could become serious enough to endanger ExxonMobil's (NYSE: XOM  ) sparkling new and wide-ranging partnership with Russian oil giant Rosneft.

Foolish bottom line
As energy investors we can safely proclaim a couple of truisms emanating from Syria. First, crude prices are unlikely to retreat precipitously, barring a major turnaround by the parties involved. And second, both refiners and all those who tend to pump gasoline into their vehicles are certain to be affected by crude lingering at even relatively high levels?

It seems clear that the first item should have Fools redoubling their attention to exploration and production companies, which will constitute the boats that will all be levitated by the rising tide of crude prices. For my money, I'm attracted to EOG Resources, an especially oily domestic producer with the leading position in the prolific Eagle Ford play, among others.

I'd also point out that Chesapeake (NYSE: CHK  ) is a major player in the Eagle Ford, and still is beset by something of an Aubrey McClendon discount. Finally, I wouldn't turn up my nose at Chevron, which, unlike many of its peers, isn't active in Iraq, but operates in a host of promising and relatively safe areas worldwide.

With the energy sector definitely firming up as events spiral in the Middle East and North Africa, you need to know all you can about perhaps the most compelling company in the group. Warren Buffett is so confident in this company's can't-live-without-it business model, he just loaded up on 2.19 million shares. An exclusive, brand-new Motley Fool report reveals the company we're calling OPEC's Worst Nightmare. Just click HERE to uncover the name of this industry-leading stock... and join Buffett in his quest for a veritable LANDSLIDE of profits!

Thursday, November 7, 2013

Measuring the metrics that matter in the RIA world

One of the big advantages registered investment advisers have over wirehouse advisers is the extent of the control they have over their business’ performances. While RIAs can drive their own success by having a handle on all aspect of their businesses, wirehouse advisers, perforce, have a systemically myopic view of top-line growth.

You have probably read a lot about “big data” and a whole industry that helps businesses get a handle on measuring “metrics that matter.” One of the keys to success for an RIA is knowing both what to measure and how to measure it.

What are you tracking throughout the year: Financials? Business development? Client assets? Investment performance? Do you have these numbers at your fingertips? Or do you have to spend cycles manually collecting the data and analyzing the numbers?

The most efficient way to collect, analyze, track, and present this data is by using a dashboard. And I do mean dashboard in the most obvious sense — like the one in an automobile that should show you everything you need to know to keep on driving.

What makes for a great dashboard not only is the information it displays, but also what it looks like: simple, clear, and uncluttered. However, as you consider the metrics for any dashboard you need to address the following questions:

1. What is its purpose? Who will be seeing it? And who will be using it? (Are they front-line client service associates and analysts, or the advisers?)

2. What decisions need to be made on the basis of the information being presented?

Management also needs to view both strategic and tactical data to make sure the goals of the firm are being met. So for the management level dashboard you will, in addition, need to address the following considerations:

1. Are the metrics tied to critical firm business outcomes?

2. Do the metrics provide insight into how your team is affecting these outcomes?

3. Do the metrics help demonstrate your team’s overall effectiveness and financial value?

4. Does the dashboard provide insight into what is, and isn’t, working?

I enjoy working with RIAs to answer these questions, and building, with them, meaningful dashboards that help them identify and track their goals. And there should be dashboards — plural — both across the firm, and down to the individual adviser level. Only by understanding your critical business outcomes, both firmwide and on an individual level, and how the different parts of your team are expected to affect these, will you be in the best position to define your metrics and subsequently, use them effectively.

Additionally, a good dashboard should contain updates to what I like to call qualitative strategic initiatives. These are the continuing projects that are the actual work people do to meet their goals. For example, one firm ! I work with has several qualitative strategic initiatives to track: improvements in client satisfaction scores, the development of a new client report, a portfolio of new marketing materials and new M&A opportunities. Without these, your dashboards run the risk of turning into piles of meaningless data points and pretty charts.

Once the whole team, from top to bottom, has access to all the information they need to do their jobs — both as a firm and individually — the benefits can be enormous. For instance, with the ability to track their goals, successes, failures and even aspirations, the culture of caring for, and helping develop, the careers of your professionals simply become a natural part of your firm’s DNA: an essential condition for any really successful firm.

Another particularly successful firm with which I work uses dashboards to undert

Wednesday, November 6, 2013

Blockbuster closing all stores, going all digital

Blockbuster is closing.

The retail company that introduced millions of Americans to Friday family movie nights said it will close its 300 remaining U.S. stores by early January next year. Its DVD-by-mail business will also be shut down by mid-December.

"This is not an easy decision, yet consumer demand is clearly moving to digital distribution of video entertainment," said Joseph P. Clayton, CEO of Dish Network, Blockbuster's parent company.

"Despite our closing of the physical distribution elements of the business, we continue to see value in the Blockbuster brand, and we expect to leverage that brand as we continue to expand our digital offerings."

Dish said it will retain licensing rights to the Blockbuster brand and its vast video library.

Dish said it will focus on expanding its Blockbuster @Home business, a streaming service available to Dish pay-TV customers. Blockbuster On Demand, the company's streaming service for the general public, will also continue to operate.

Dish Network bought Blockbuster in April, 2011 in an auction for $320 million as Blockbuster was emerging from Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

Dish's plan at the time was to leverage its more than 1,700 store locations to offer in-store rentals that would complement Dish's other video offerings. "Cross-marketing and service-extension opportunities" – possibly in-store promotions for Dish's packages - were also mentioned by Dish at the time of the acquisition.

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But running the stores proved to be tougher than Dish's management anticipated, as video lovers continued to flock to Netflix, YouTube and other startup streaming sites and cheaper kiosk rental locations.

Dish continued to close stores throughout the country. Its rental library was cut in half in the last year, down to 41.5 million titles as of June from 81.9 million a year earlier.

Blockbuster's revenue fell to $120 million in the second quarter, less than half of $253.3 million it generated in the year-ago period.

Sunday, November 3, 2013

Is wacky ‘70 Plymouth Superbird worth $500K?

The world knows it as the 1970 Plymouth Road Runner Superbird. But given its rarity and how quickly it became an anachronism, it might as well be a dodo bird.

With its bullet-shaped, bolted-on nose and sky-high wing in back, Superbird is one of the more unusual looking cars ever to go on sale. Now one is coming up for auction.

Despite its strange looks, it's valued by the auction house at $400,00 to $500,000. That's all for a car designed to conquer NASCAR with a design so outlandish that it was never expected to be sold in large numbers.

Only 2,000 of those were sold. Of those, only 58 had Hemi four-speeds, says RM Auctions and Southby's, which is putting

one on the block Nov. 21 in New York.

RM says it was designed with one person in mind, NASCAR champion Richard Petty. Superbird was meant to lure him from Ford to Chrysler by taking advantage of 1969 NASCAR rules that required sales of 500 cars of a particular model a year to qualify. By 1971, NASCAR had changed the rules to limit horsepower to cars with big wings, dooming the Superbird.

This one has 16,360 original miles, RM says, and was restored in 2002. It originally sold in New Jersey for $5,503.