Top Stocks To Buy 2020: February 2014

Friday, February 21, 2014

SEC Starts Exam Sweep of Never-Examined Advisors

Fulfilling its promise to zero in on advisors who have never been examined, the Securities and Exchange Commission announced Thursday its exam sweep of such advisors through its Never-Examined Advisor Initiative.

Jane Jarcho, national associate director of the SEC’s Office of Compliance Inspections and Examinations’ exam program for advisors and investment companies, said Thursday that the initiative would be directed at never-examined advisors registered with the SEC for three or more years.

“Our examinations will focus on areas most important to protecting investors,” Jarcho said. “We will also promote compliance by engaging with these advisors through outreach efforts.”

OCIE will conduct examinations of a “significant percentage of advisors” that have not been examined since they registered with the SEC. These examinations, Jarcho said, will concentrate on the advisors’ compliance programs, filings and disclosure, marketing, portfolio management and safekeeping of client assets.

Andrew Bowden, the OCIE director, said last October that the agency would take aim at the group of about 4,000 RIAs that have never been examined.

Best Industrial Disributor Companies To Buy For 2015

Excluded from the initiative, however, will be advisors to private funds, which are being examined pursuant to the “Presence Exam” initiative launched in October 2012.

David Tittsworth, executive director of the Investment Adviser Association in Washington, told ThinkAdvisor that IAA is "extremely pleased" with OCIE’s announcement. Citing statistics released by the SEC in recent years, Tittsworth says that the number of investment advisory firms that have never been examined "approaches 40%" of all SEC-registered entities. "There is absolutely no doubt that the SEC can and should do a better job – even within its constrained resources – of taking steps to ensure that all advisory firms are touched by SEC examiners."

The Never-Before Examined Initiative includes two distinct approaches: risk assessment and focused reviews. The risk assessment approach is designed to obtain a better understanding of a registrant, the letter says. This type of exam may include a high-level review of an advisor’s overall business activities, with a particular focus on the compliance program and other essential documents needed to assess the representations made on disclosure documents.

Duane Thompson, senior policy analyst at fi360, says he expects "the vast majority of the ‘never-inspected’ group to [receive] deficiency letters, meaning they will have to make adjustments to their compliance programs." However, Thompson doesn't believe they'll be "any Madoff headlines. Over the years only a tiny percentage [of advisors] are referred to the SEC’s Enforcement Division for serious problems." Overall, he adds "most advisor’s compliance programs will be improved by the experience."

In a letter to these advisors, Jarcho sets out further parameters of the exam program, and familiarized advisors with the agency’s National Exam Program. However, the letter states that receiving the letter “does not necessarily mean your firm will be examined. The NEP staff will contact you separately if your firm is selected for an examination.”

Starting later this year, Jarcho said that OCIE will invite SEC-registered investment advisors who have yet to be examined to attend regional meetings where they can learn more about the examination process.

She also directed these advisors to review the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and “other useful guidance” on the SEC’s website to find information regarding their obligations.

Thursday, February 20, 2014

Best Valued Stocks To Watch For 2015

Just last year Apple (AAPL) appeared set to win the race amongst a group of select tech stock to reach $1,000. Though the company had become the largest valued stock in the world, it still was competing with Google (GOOG) and Priceline (PCLN) to be the first to reach the magical $1,000 mark. Clearly reaching such a figure is partially the function of not splitting the stock, but it also is indicative of truly fast growth.

With Apple plunging to below $400 in early 2013, most investors probably don't even consider it has having a chance to even reach $1,000 period much less beat Google to that number with it trading at $890. Typically those are the stocks discussed in that race to $1,000, but it actually appears that Priceline will easily win the contest with it now trading near $960. Time will tell so let's review the possibilities as the probability of reaching that magical figure is higher than most think these days.

The below chart showcases the prices over the last five years including the dramatic shift in the race as 2012 ended:

Best Valued Stocks To Watch For 2015: Dollar Tree Inc.(DLTR)

Dollar Tree, Inc. operates discount variety stores in the United States and Canada. Its stores offer merchandise primarily at the fixed price of $1.00. The company operates its stores under the names of Dollar Tree, Deal$, Dollar Tree Deal$, Dollar Giant, and Dollar Bills. Its stores offer consumable merchandise, including candy and food, and health and beauty care, as well as household consumables, such as paper, plastics, household chemicals, in select stores, and frozen and refrigerated food; variety merchandise, which includes toys, durable housewares, gifts, party goods, greeting cards, softlines, and other items; and seasonal goods, such as Easter, Halloween, and Christmas merchandise. As of April 30, 2011, it operated 4,089 stores in 48 states and the District of Columbia, as well as 88 stores in Canada. The company was founded in 1986 and is based in Chesapeake, Virginia.

Advisors' Opinion:

[By Paul Ausick]
The other stock the firm likes is Dollar Tree Inc. (NASDAQ: DLTR). The company�� shares have lost about 4.6% since reporting an earnings per share (EPS) miss for the third quarter and the Sterne Agee analysts see the lower price as a ��reat entry point��for buying the stock. Dollar Tree raised fiscal year 2013 EPS guidance from a range of $2.66 to $2.77 to a new range of $2.72 to $2.78, effectively raising the mid-point by $0.04. Sterne Agee reiterated its Buy rating on the stock with a price target of $63. Dollar Tree�� shares are trading down nearly 0.4% at $55.99 in a 52-week range of $37.47 to $60.19.
[By Rising Dividend Investing]
Falling Stock Correlation: What It Says About Consumer Spending
As we mentioned in the Take Aways from the August 26th Investment Policy Committee meeting, the correlation index has been steadily declining. In 2008-09, macroeconomic events drove nearly every stock downwards. Specific sectors and stocks moved in tandem with one another. Today, stocks and sub-industries within each sector are performing very differently – which indicates a return to a more normal stock market environment.
The Consumer Discretionary (also known as Consumer Cyclicals) sector is an example of an industry that has been rewarded for its fundamental success over the past 12 months. As a whole, the sector grew sales 6.1% and earnings 9.2% in the second quarter - much better than the 1.4% sales and 3.3% earnings growth of the S&P 500. While the overall sector did well in the second quarter, the table below shows how differently the 5 sub-categories of Consumer Discretionary performed:

(click to enlarge)
As we drill down even further, sub-categories of sub-sectors differ even more dramatically. Below is a snapshot of the Retailing sub-sector and its notable components:

(click to enlarge)
Specific stocks within each sub-category are varying in performance as well. General Merchandise retailers were significantly differentiated in the second quarter. Target’s (TGT) adjusted EPS were up 6.1% from 2012, while Dollar General (DG) and Dollar Tree’s (DLTR) earnings were up nearly 12% and 9%, respectively.
The differences in sales and earnings growth amongst these different industries tell a story. The economy is not improving enough that people feel like they can let go and spend money on pure pleasures, but it is improving enough that they can afford to replace their cars and fix the doors on their houses. As these items wear out and need to be replaced, we expect the pent up demand will drive increased economic activity from cons

Best Valued Stocks To Watch For 2015: Caterpillar Inc.(CAT)

Caterpillar Inc. manufactures and sells construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines, and diesel-electric locomotives worldwide. It operates through three lines of businesses: Machinery, Engines, and Financial Products. The Machinery business offers construction, mining, and forestry machinery, including track and wheel tractors, track and wheel loaders, pipelayers, motor graders, wheel tractor-scrapers, track and wheel excavators, backhoe loaders, log skidders, log loaders, off-highway trucks, articulated trucks, paving products, skid steer loaders, underground mining equipment, tunnel boring equipment, and related parts. It also manufactures diesel-electric locomotives; and manufactures and services rail-related products and logistics services for other companies. The Engines business provides diesel, heavy fuel, and natural gas reciprocating engines for Caterpillar machinery, electric power generation systems, marine, petrol eum, construction, industrial, agricultural, and other applications. It offers industrial turbines and turbine-related services for oil and gas, and power generation applications. This business also remanufactures Caterpillar engines, machines, and engine components; and offers remanufacturing services for other companies. The Financial Products business provides retail and wholesale financing alternatives for Caterpillar machinery and engines, solar gas turbines, and other equipment and marine vessels, as well as offers loans and various forms of insurance to customers and dealers. It also offers financing for vehicles, power generation facilities, and marine vessels. The company markets its products directly, as well as through its distribution centers, dealers, and distributors. It was formerly known as Caterpillar Tractor Co. and changed its name to Caterpillar Inc. in 1986. Caterpillar Inc. was founded in 1925 and is headquartered in Peoria, Illinois.

Advisors' Opinion:

[By Alex Dumortier, CFA]
Earnings: The week ahead
Each day of this week will see one Dow component report its results, beginning with Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT ) today (see below), followed by AT&T, Procter & Gamble, ExxonMobil, and Chevron. Also note that Apple -- oddly, not part of the Dow -- reports tomorrow.
[By Dan Caplinger]
Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT ) lost half a percent, even as gold and silver prices posted modest gains. Caterpillar finds itself in a difficult position, as low metals prices will likely force many of its mining-company clients to delay or downsize purchases of capital equipment. Ordinarily, cyclical economic improvement would bode well for the company, but to the extent that improving conditions lead to less monetary accommodation from central banks, prices of metals could fall further, and jeopardize that part of Caterpillar's business, even if construction and infrastructure activity pick up. That will be a difficult line for the company to walk in the year ahead.
[By Eric Volkman]
Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT ) has increased its common stock dividend to $0.60 per share, the company announced Wednesday, to be paid Aug. 20 to shareholders of record as of July 22.
[By Jeremy Bowman]
Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT ) was the worst performer out of the 30 Dow components, falling 1.5%. Talks between the construction equipment maker and a Milwaukee union fell apart after workers rejected a new contract that would have frozen wages for current employees and paid new employees a lower wage. Shares of Caterpillar had increased more than 10% in the last three weeks so the stock may just be cooling off after its bullish run.

Hot Industrial Conglomerate Stocks To Own Right Now: Tupperware Corporation(TUP)

Tupperware Brands Corporation operates as a direct seller of various products across a range of brands and categories through an independent sales force. The company engages in the manufacture and sale of kitchen and home products, and beauty and personal care products. It offers preparation, storage, and serving solutions for the kitchen and home, as well as kitchen cookware and tools, children?s educational toys, microwave products, and gifts under the Tupperware brand name primarily in Europe, Africa, the Middle East, the Asia Pacific, and North America. The company provides beauty and personal care products, which include skin care products, cosmetics, bath and body care, toiletries, fragrances, nutritional products, apparel, and related products principally in Mexico, South Africa, the Philippines, Australia, and Uruguay. It offers beauty and personal care products under the Armand Dupree, Avroy Shlain, BeautiControl, Fuller, NaturCare, Nutrimetics, Nuvo, and Swissgar de brand names. The company sells its Tupperware products directly to distributors, directors, managers, and dealers; and beauty products primarily through consultants and directors. As of December 26, 2009, the Tupperware distribution system had approximately 1,800 distributors, 61,300 managers, and 1.3 million dealers; and the sales force representing the Beauty businesses approximately 1.1 million. The company was formerly known as Tupperware Corporation and changed its name to Tupperware Brands Corporation in December 2005. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Orlando, Florida.

Advisors' Opinion:

[By Eric Volkman]
Tupperware Brands (NYSE: TUP ) is reaching into its corporate bowl for a fresh payout to shareholders. The company has declared a quarterly dividend of $0.62 per share. This will be paid on July 8 to stockholders of record as of June 19. That amount matches the firm's previous distribution, which was paid in early April. Prior to that, Tupperware Brands was rather less generous, handing out $0.36 per share.
[By Arie Goren]
After running this screen on May 21, 2013, before the markets' open, I discovered the following eight stocks: Sunoco Logistics Partners LP (SXL), Leggett & Platt Inc (LEG), Copa Holdings SA (CPA), RPC Inc. (RES), Tupperware Brands Corp. (TUP), Herbalife Ltd. (HLF), John Wiley & Sons Inc. (JW.A) and C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc. (CHRW).
[By Ben Levisohn]
Shares of Herbalife have gained 0.9% to $79.51 this morning in pre-open trading. Its shares have gained 139% this year, a nice gain, but lagging Nu Skin Enterprises 271% rise. Avon Products�(AVP), another multi-level marketer, has gained 21% so far this year, while Tupperware Brands�(TUP) has risen 49%.

Best Valued Stocks To Watch For 2015: Schlumberger N.V.(SLB)

Schlumberger Limited, together with its subsidiaries, supplies technology, integrated project management, and information solutions to the oil and gas exploration and production industries worldwide. The company?s Oilfield Services segment provides exploration and production services; wireline technology that offers open-hole and cased-hole services; supplies engineering support, directional-drilling, measurement-while-drilling, and logging-while-drilling services; and testing services. This segment also offers well services; supplies well completion services and equipment; artificial lift; data and consulting services; geo services; and information solutions, such as consulting, software, information management system, and IT infrastructure services that support oil and gas industry. Its WesternGeco segment provides reservoir imaging, monitoring, and development services; and operates data processing centers and multiclient seismic library. This segment also offers variou s services include 3D and time-lapse (4D) seismic surveys to multi-component surveys for delineating prospects and reservoir management. The company?s M-I SWACO segment supplies drilling fluid systems to improve drilling performance; fluid systems and specialty tools to optimize wellbore productivity; production technology solutions to maximize production rates; and environmental solutions that manages waste volumes generated in drilling and production operations. Its Smith Oilfield segment designs, manufactures, and markets drill bits and borehole enlargement tools; and supplies drilling tools and services, tubular, completion services, and other related downhole solutions. The company?s Distribution segment markets pipes, valves, and fittings, as well as mill, safety, and other maintenance products. This segment also provides warehouse management, vendor integration, and inventory management services. Schlumberger Limited was founded in 1927 and is based in Houston, Texas.

Advisors' Opinion:

[By Tyler Crowe]
Talk to your CFO if you experience bloating
This quarter, Nabors, Halliburton (NYSE: HAL ) , and Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB ) have all struggled in their pressure-pumping businesses because of oversupply in the current market. According to Nabors CEO Anthony Petrello, this has led to a very competitive market: "It is not unusual to bid frac jobs against 20 other pumpers, and sometimes as many as 35 show up. We have seen some instances of competitors winning bids with economics that at least from our perspective appear to be near cash break-even."
[By Fede Zaldua]
Halliburton now trades at 11.7 times 2014 earnings and 5.9 times EV/EBITDA. One of its closer competitors in the oil and gas services industry, Schlumberger (SLB) sells for 15.1 times 2014 earnings and 8.6 EV/EBITDA. Its true that Halliburton's third quarter did not impress investors at all. As a matter of fact, the stock reacted negatively when results were released despite the small EPS beat the company achieved ��$0.83 versus $0.82 analysts were expecting. The stock's reaction was related to lower than expected growth (above all in Latin America) and smaller than expected margins in North America. That said, I believe those issues ��slower growth and declining margins ��were given by temporary issues such as the flooding in Colorado which is not an operational issue but a weather-related issue. Once again, I agree with Soros. Halliburton should continue outperfoming and beating its self-imposed targets.

Currently 0.00/512345
Rating: 0.0/5 (0 votes)
[By David Smith]
A promising partnership
Total outlays for subsea facilities were slightly more than $25 billion in 2011. That number is expected to rocket to about $130 billion by 2020. Among several companies that will benefit from this nearly five-fold growth are Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB ) and Cameron International (NYSE: CAM ) .

Wednesday, February 19, 2014

Investors Cap Grows Sales 20% but Reports Loss

Independent broker-dealer Investors Capital (ICH), which is being acquired by RCS Capital Corp. (RCAP), said Friday that its sales improved 20% from a year ago to $25 million in the quarter ending Dec. 31, but reported a loss of $286,000, or $0.04 per share, for the period. Year-ago sales were $20.8 million, and net income was $134,000, or $0.02 per share.

Its sales boost was mainly due “to top-line growth of both commissions and advisory fees organically through targeted practice management initiatives, attracting and recruiting new financial advisors, and improved financial market conditions,” the company says.

"We achieved our largest quarterly revenue result in company history, our practice management initiatives continue to have a tangible effect on increasing advisor production, recruiting is robust, and advisor retention by delivering 5-Star Service every day remains high," said President and CEO Timothy B. Murphy, in a statement. "Though the firm posted a net loss, I am encouraged by the fact that our operating loss was largely attributed to the merger agreement between RCAP and ICH, a positive development that I believe will tremendously benefit all stakeholders involved upon completion."

RCS Capital is led by Executive Chairman Nicholas Schorsch, a veteran real-estate investor.

Investors Capital's average yearly revenue (fees and commissions) per advisor rose to about $207,500, an increase of 16% from about $179,400 for the prior 12 months. “The continued growth in per capita, representative-generated revenue is a direct result of attracting and recruiting new, higher-producing advisors, favorable market conditions, and the firm's enhanced practice management program,” the company said in a press release.

For the nine months ending Dec. 31, total revenue rose 13% to $70.2 million vs. the nine months ending Dec. 31, 2012.

Commission revenue climbed 20% to $18.6 million in Q4 vs. $15.5 million in Q3. Advisory fee revenue increased 18% to nearly $5 million compared to about $4 million in the prior period.

Expenses increased by $4.8 million, or 23.3%, from Q3 “principally as a result of increases in commissions and advisory fees compensated to our registered representatives on increased sales volume, advertising and marketing costs for practice management and recruiting, and an increase in professional fees and legal and settlement costs,” the IBD says.

Regulatory, legal and professional expenses also rose “due to legal and professional costs related to the merger agreement between RCAP and ICH.”

Monday, February 17, 2014

Top 10 Healthcare Equipment Stocks For 2015

Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg via Getty Images The U.S. Postal Service says it lost $5 billion over the past 12 months. It's the seventh straight year the agency has reported a net loss. Postal officials say the loss increases the urgency for Congress to let them end Saturday mail delivery and reduce payments for retiree health benefits. The Postal Service has struggled for years with declining mail volume and required payments of $5.6 billion annually in health care costs for future retirees. It has defaulted on three of those payments. Revenue from package delivery continued to grow, rising 8 percent last year. But that's not enough to offset losses in first class mail, which has been the post office's most profitable service.

Top 10 Healthcare Equipment Stocks For 2015: CapitalSource Inc (CSE)

CapitalSource Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides financial products to small and middle market businesses in the United States. It offers depository products and services, such as savings and money market accounts, individual retirement account products, and certificates of deposit. The company also provides senior secured real estate and asset-based loans, and cash flow loans, which have a first priority lien in the collateral securing the loan. Its asset-based loans are collateralized by specified assets of the client, primarily the client�s accounts/notes receivable, inventory, and machinery; and real estate loans are secured by senior mortgages on real property. The company focuses on providing equipment loans and leases; loans to healthcare providers; commercial real estate and multifamily real estate loans; loans secured by timeshare, auto, and other consumer receivables; student loans; traditional life insurance premium finance loans; and loans to technology companies, small businesses, dentists, physicians, pharmacists, and optometrists, as well as to companies in the physical security, government security, and public safety sectors. It operates through 21 retail bank branches in southern and central California, as well as lending offices in the United States. The company was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Los Angeles, California.

Advisors' Opinion:

[By Nicole Seghetti]
Let's take a closer look at three stocks Fisher recently bought, including drugmaker Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ: GILD ) , materials manufacturer Owens Corning (NYSE: OC ) , and financial services provider CapitalSource (NYSE: CSE ) .
[By Eric Volkman]
CapitalSource (NYSE: CSE ) and PacWest Bancorp (NASDAQ: PACW ) are soon to be one and the same. The two companies have agreed to merge, both announced in a joint press release. CapitalSource investors will receive a cash payout of $2.47 and 0.2837 shares of PacWest common stock for each CapitalSource share they hold. This values the latter's stock at $11.68 per share, a nearly 19% premium to its most recent closing price. The total transaction value is estimated at roughly $2.3 billion.
[By Paul Ausick]
PacWest Bancorp (NASDAQ: PACW) is a small cap regional bank that mainly serves southern California. A likely merger with CapitalSource Inc. (NYSE: CSE) enhances the outlook for the coming year, bringing the bank�� assets to more than $10 billion. The bank�� stock closed at $41.66 on Friday in a 52-week range of $24.27 to $42.69. Sterne Agee projects 2014 EPS of $2.80, up 43% compared with estimated 2013 earnings. The implied gain to the target price of $48.00 is about 15% and the forward P/E ratio is 14.9.
[By Jon C. Ogg]
The recently announced PacWest Bancorp (NASDAQ: PACW) and CapitalSource Inc. (NYSE: CSE) merger was called a beacon in an otherwise dim bank M&A landscape so far in 2013 as it was only a $2.3 billion deal total. So far, 2013 looks to register lower in banking M&A activity than the lean years of 2011 and 2012 at only about $9.1 billion in total so far, versus almost $17 billion for each of the past two years. There are only 13 pending transactions that exceed $100 million, and two of these are expected to close imminently.

Top 10 Healthcare Equipment Stocks For 2015: TrueBlue Inc.(TBI)

TrueBlue, Inc. provides temporary blue-collar staffing services in the United States. It supplies on demand general labor to various industries under the Labor Ready brand; skilled labor to manufacturing and logistics industries under the Spartan Staffing brand; and trades people for commercial, industrial, and residential construction, and building and plant maintenance industries under the CLP Resources brand. The company also provides mechanics and technicians to the aviation maintenance, repair and overhaul, aerospace manufacturing, and assembly industries, as well as to other transportation industries under the Plane Techs brand; and temporary drivers to the transportation and distribution industries under the Centerline brand. It primarily serves small and medium-size businesses. The company was formerly known as Labor Ready, Inc. and changed its name to TrueBlue, Inc. in December 2007. TrueBlue, Inc. was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in Tacoma, Washington.

Advisors' Opinion:

[By Travis Hoium]
What: Shares of staffing agency TrueBlue (NYSE: TBI ) jumped 10% today after the company reported earnings.

So what: Revenue jumped 19%, to $422.3 million, and beat estimates of $420.2 million from Wall Street. Adjusted earnings per share were also up 19%, to $0.31, outpacing estimates by $0.05.�

Hot Cheap Stocks To Invest In 2015: Trans World Entertainment Corp.(TWMC)

Trans World Entertainment Corporation, through its subsidiaries, operates as a specialty retailer of entertainment software products, including music, video, video games, and other related products through its retail stores and e-commerce sites in the United States. The company?s other related products include electronics, accessories, and trend items. As of January 29, 2011, it operated 376 mall-based stores under the For Your Entertainment (f.y.e.), Suncoast Motion Pictures, and Saturday Matinee brand names in regional shopping malls; 84 freestanding stores under the f.y.e. brand name; and 3 retail Websites, including fye.com, wherehouse.com, and secondspin.com. The company operates retail stores in the United States, the District of Columbia, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Trans World Entertainment Corporation was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Albany, New York.

Top 10 Healthcare Equipment Stocks For 2015: El En(ELN.MI)

El.En S.p.A., through its subsidiaries, engages in the research, development, manufacture, distribution, and sale of laser systems in Europe and internationally. It offers laser systems for medical applications, including aesthetics, surgical, physiotherapy, dermatology, surgery, cosmetics, dentistry, and gynaecology. The company also provides laser systems for industrial applications, such as cutting, marking, and welding of metals, wood, plastic, and glass, as well as in the decoration of leather and fabric, and the conservative restoration of works of art; and systems for scientific applications and research. In addition, it offers after-sales service, including support for the installation and maintenance of its laser systems; and spare parts, consumables, and technical assistance services. The company sells its products through its subsidiaries, as well as through a network of distributors. El.En S.p.A. was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Calenzano, Italy.

Top 10 Healthcare Equipment Stocks For 2015: Valley National Bancorp(VLY)

Valley National Bancorp operates as the bank holding company for Valley National Bank that provides various commercial, retail, trust, and investment services. The company?s deposit products include savings accounts, negotiable order of withdrawal accounts, money market accounts, time deposits, certificates of deposit, and non-interest-bearing accounts. Its loan portfolio comprises floating and adjustable rate commercial and industrial loans, as well as fixed rate owner occupied and commercial real estate loans; and consumer loans, such as residential mortgage, automobile, home equity, and credit card loans, as well as lines of credit. The company also provides fixed rate investments, trading securities, and federal funds; and international banking services, such as standby letters of credit, documentary letters of credit, and related products, as well as ancillary services. In addition, it offers asset management advisory services that comprise investment services to ind ividuals and small to medium sized businesses; trust services, such as living and testamentary trusts, investment management, custodial and escrow services, and estate administration primarily to individuals; brokerage services; and title insurance agency and asset-based lending support services. Further, the company provides property and casualty, life, and health insurance; financing for general aviation aircraft, and servicing for existing commercial equipment leases; health care equipment and other commercial equipment leases; and owns real estate related investments. Valley National Bancorp also offers automated teller machines, telephone and Internet banking, overdraft facilities, drive-in and night deposit services, and safe deposit facilities. As of December 30, 2011, it operated 211 branches in 147 communities serving 16 counties throughout northern and central New Jersey, Manhattan, and Long Island. The company was founded in 1927 and is headquartered in Wayne, New Jersey.

Top 10 Healthcare Equipment Stocks For 2015: Newell Rubbermaid Inc.(NWL)

Newell Rubbermaid Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets consumer and commercial products. It operates in three segments: Home & Family, Office Products, and Tools, Hardware & Commercial Products. The Home & Family segment offers indoor/outdoor organization, food storage, and home storage products; infant and juvenile products, such as car seats, strollers, highchairs, and playards; drapery hardware, window treatments, and cabinet hardware; gourmet cookware, bakeware, cutlery, and small kitchen electrics; and hair care accessories and grooming products to mass merchants, specialty stores, and grocery/drug and department stores. The Office Products segment provides writing instruments, including pens, pencils, markers and highlighters, and art products; fine writing instruments and leather goods; office technology solutions, such as label makers and printers, interactive teaching solutions, and on-line postage to mass merchants, warehouse clubs, grocery/drug stores, office superstores, contract stationers, and retailers. The Tools, Hardware & Commercial Products segment offers industrial bandsaw blades and cutting tools for pipes and HVAC systems; hand tools and power tool accessories; manual paint applicators, window hardware, and convenience hardware; cleaning and refuse products, hygiene systems, material handling solutions, medical and computer carts, and wall-mounted workstations to mass merchants, home centers, department stores, hardware and commercial products distributors, industrial/construction outlets, custom shops, select contract customers, and professional customers. It sells its products under Rubbermaid, Graco, Aprica, Levolor, Kirsch, Amerock, Calphalon, Goody, Sharpie, Expo, Dymo, Paper Mate, Parker, Waterman, Lenox, Irwin, Shur-line, and Bulldog brands. The company operates in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, and the Asia Pacific. Newell Rubbermaid Inc. was founded in 1903 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

Advisors' Opinion:

[By WWW.DAILYFINANCE.COM]
Alamy DETROIT -- Graco is recalling nearly 3.8 million car safety seats because children can get trapped by buckles that may not unlatch. But the company has drawn the ire of federal safety regulators who say the recall should include another 1.8 million rear-facing car seats designed for infants. The recall covers 11 models made from 2009 through 2013 by Graco Children's Products of Atlanta, a unit of Newell Rubbermaid (NWL). It's the fourth-largest child seat recall in U.S. history, according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, the government's road safety watchdog. The agency warned that the problem could make it "difficult to remove the child from the restraint, increasing the risk of injury in the event of a vehicle crash, fire or other emergency." NHTSA also criticized Graco in a sternly-worded letter dated Tuesday, saying the recall excludes seven infant car seat models with the same buckles. Both the company and NHTSA have received complaints about stuck buckles on the infant seats, the agency said. "Some of these consumers have had no choice but to resort to the extreme measure of cutting the harness straps to remove their child from the car seat," the NHTSA letter said. The agency wants Graco to identify the total number of seats that potentially have the defect and explain why it excluded the infant seats. NHTSA, which began investigating the seats in October of 2012, said the investigation remains open. The agency said it could hold a public hearing and require Graco to add the infant seats. Graco, a division of Atlanta-based Newell Rubbermaid, told The Associated Press that its tests found that food or beverages can make the harness buckles in the children's seats sticky and harder to use over time. Rear-facing infant seats aren't being recalled because infants don't get food or drinks on their seats, Graco spokeswoman Ashley Mowrey said. But Mowrey said Graco will send replacement buckles to owners of infant seats upon re
[By Shauna O'Brien]
Newell Rubbermaid Inc. (NWL) announced on Wednesday that it has finalized the sale of its Hardware business.

The sale, which was first reported on August 9, was completed on Wednesday. Nova Capital has acquired NWL’s Hardware business which includes the Amerock, Ashland, Bulldog and Shur-Line brands.

NWL will receive approximately $175 million in after-tax proceeds from the sale.

Newell Rubbermaid shares were mostly flat during pre-market trading Wednesday. The stock has increased 18% YTD.

Top 10 Healthcare Equipment Stocks For 2015: Amarc Resources Ltd. (AHR.V)

Amarc Resources Ltd. engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of mineral properties in Canada. The company explores for gold, silver, and copper deposits. It holds 100% interests in the Newton property located to the southwest of the City of Williams Lake, British Columbia; and the Silver Vista project located in west central British Columbia. The company also owns 100% interests in Galileo, Hubble, Franklin, and Darwin properties covering approximately 1,300 square kilometers located within the Blackwater district. In addition, it holds interests in the Tulox property covering 54 square kilometers in the Cariboo region; and the Blackwater South property that covers an area of 49 square kilometers located in the Omineca Mining Division, British Columbia. The company was formerly known as Patriot Resources Ltd. and changed its name to Amarc Resources Ltd. in January 1994. Amarc Resources Ltd. was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada .

Top 10 Healthcare Equipment Stocks For 2015: VIST Financial Corp(VIST)

VIST Financial Corp. operates as the holding company for VIST Bank that provides commercial and consumer banking products and services. The company accepts various deposits that include money market accounts, club accounts, NOW accounts, and traditional regular savings accounts; time, demand, and savings accounts; and certificates of deposit, individual retirement accounts, and Roth individual retirement accounts. Its loan portfolio comprises commercial real estate, industrial, and agricultural loans; real estate construction loans; residential real estate loans; consumer loans; equipment lease and accounts receivable financing; construction and mortgage loans, including home equity loans; and small business loans and other services, including rents for safe deposit facilities. The company also provides mortgage banking services; a line of personal and commercial property and casualty insurance; group insurance for businesses, employee, and group benefit plans; life insura nce; and investment advisory and brokerage services, such as individual financial planning, retirement and estate planning, investments, corporate and small business pension, and retirement planning, as well as health savings accounts. It operates 22 full service and 2 limited service financial centers in various places in Pennsylvania. The company was formerly known as Leesport Financial Corp. and changed its name to VIST Financial Corp. in March 2008. The company was founded in 1909 and is headquartered in Wyomissing, Pennsylvania.

Top 10 Healthcare Equipment Stocks For 2015: PetSmart Inc(PETM)

PetSmart, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a specialty retailer of products, services, and solutions for pets in the United States, Puerto Rico, and Canada. The company offers consumables, such as pet food, treats, and litter; and hardgoods, which include pet supplies and other goods comprising collars, leashes, health care supplies, grooming and beauty aids, toys, apparel, and pet beds and carriers, as well as aquariums and habitats, accessories, d�or, and filters for fish, birds, reptiles, and small pets. It also provides fresh-water fish, small birds, reptiles, and small pets; and pet services, such as grooming, including precision cuts, baths, nail trimming and grinding, and teeth brushing, as well as training, boarding, and day camp services. In addition, the company operates PetsHotels that offer boarding for dogs and cats; provides personalized pet care, an on-call veterinarian, temperature controlled rooms and suites, daily specialty treats and p lay time, and day camp services for dogs; and operates veterinary hospitals, which offer services comprising routine examinations and vaccinations, dental care, a pharmacy, and surgical procedures. As of January 29, 2012, it operated 1,232 retail stores; 192 PetsHotels; 791 veterinary hospitals under the trade name of Banfield, The Pet Hospital; and 8 hospitals operated through other third parties in Canada. The company also offers its products through an e-commerce and community site, PetSmart.com. PetSmart, Inc. was founded in 1986 and is based in Phoenix, Arizona.

Advisors' Opinion:

[By Brian Pacampara]
Based on the aggregated intelligence of 180,000-plus investors participating in Motley Fool CAPS, the Fool's free investing community, pet food and products retailer PetSmart (NASDAQ: PETM ) has earned a respected four-star ranking.

Top 10 Healthcare Equipment Stocks For 2015: (MPHASIS.NS)

MphasiS Limited provides application development and maintenance, infrastructure technology outsourcing (ITO), and business process outsourcing (BPO) services worldwide. The company?s application services include applications development, maintenance, and support services; enterprise application services, such as consulting, evaluation, selection, implementation, application maintenance and support, upgrades, and testing in the areas of enterprise resource planning, customer relationship management, human capital management, business intelligence and data warehousing, and supply chain management; testing, data engineering, applications modernization, and transition services; and consulting services. Its BPO offerings consist of customer sales and support; finance and accounting; and human resources outsourcing services supporting benefits administration, payroll, compensation management, recruitment and staffing, workforce administration, workforce development, and learnin g and development. The company's ITO services cover infrastructure management services and service/technical help desks, such as monitoring and support for data center, network, endpoint, and security services; workplace services supporting personal computers, laptops, mobile, and thin computing devices; data center services; network services, such as network management, network security, application performance management, unified communications, and telecom management; and infrastructure service compliance solutions. It serves banking and capital markets, insurance, manufacturing, communications, media and entertainment, healthcare and life sciences, transportation and logistics, retail and consumer packaged goods, energy and utilities, and government sectors. MphasiS Limited was formerly known as MphasiS BFL Limited and changed its name to MphasiS Limited in November 2006. The company is headquartered in Bangalore, India.

Thursday, February 13, 2014

Toyota recalling 1.9M Prius cars

Toyota is recalling around 1.9 million hybrid Prius cars around the world following the discovery of faulty software in the car's hybrid-control system.

The affected vehicles were manufactured between March 2009 and February 2014.

Toyota said that 997,000 Prius cars in Japan, some 713,000 in North America, another 130,000 in Europe and the rest in other regions are being recalled.

Toyota says of the software defect: "In rare circumstances, the hybrid system might shut down while the vehicle is being driven, resulting in the loss of power and the vehicle coming to a stop."

No accidents or injuries have been reported related to the problem.

"Since claims of unintended acceleration first popped up for Toyota back 2009, we have seen a significant increase in the number of recalls the manufacturer has issued," says Alec Gutierrez, senior analyst at Kelley Blue Book.

"Although consumers continue to give Toyota the benefit of the doubt, with the competition today stronger than Toyota has ever seen, Toyota needs to keep a keen eye on quality to ensure current owners and potential intenders don't begin to look elsewhere," he cautions.

The Japanese automaker suffered massive recalls starting in 2009, affecting more than 14 million vehicles for problems including floor mats, gas pedals and brakes.

Affected car owners can get more information at www.toyota.com/recall or by calling Toyota at 1-800-331-4331, the carmaker's website says.

Monday, February 10, 2014

Making Money in a Generational Bull Market

This isn't just any old stock market rally. It's the first leg of a global generational bull market.

Stocks around the world can and eventually will double and triple from here.

Investors want to know if it's too late to get into the record-breaking bull market.

They want to know if they should take profits... or keep their chips on the table.

They want to know how to navigate any correction, if one comes.

The answers to those questions are easy. You just have to understand where we are.

My record picking major market tops and bottoms is exceptional.

That's important, because the global generational bull market isn't going to be a straight run.

There will be ups and downs.

And to get the most of both, you need to know this market and have a plan...

Why This Market Is Unique

First, you have to understand that the first leg up was made possible by the Great Recession.

Stocks and almost every major asset class were sold off in a flight to quality and cash as the U.S.-led financial crisis spread far and wide. The deleveraging and discounting of equities and commodities created a safe entry point, especially for stocks.

The Federal Reserve and central banks around the world had to step in to stem the deflationary tide that swept across the globe. All of their resulting stimulus essentially created a floor for stocks. U.S. equities in particular benefited by the Fed's extraordinary stimulus.

Low interest rates allowed corporations to refinance their balance sheets, raise cash for buying back their shares, and strengthen their longer-term prospects. As a result earnings have been robust and buyers have been snapping up shares since 2009.

Globally, shares have risen handsomely, but not without some hiccups.

Outside the U.S. other developed markets rose, sometimes in fits and starts. And emerging markets enjoyed good upswings too.

Because emerging markets are prone to capital flight as foreign investment that boosts domestic growth industries (mostly export businesses) can exit quickly, emerging market investors tend to be more nervous.

Of the developed world, the U.S. has been called the "cleanest dirty shirt in the laundry" on account of other developed economies' reliance more on exports than internal consumption. Those other developed economies are also considered less dynamic than America's economic landscape.

It's been an extended "first leg" up for stocks, especially U.S. equities, which haven't experienced any meaningful correction in a long time.

Invest... But Know the Risks I've been dubbed the "reluctant bull" by Varney & Co.'s Stuart Varney and his co-host, Charles Payne.

Why? Because we haven't had a meaningful correction. I'm riding this bull market higher, because you have to, but I'm nervous.

Stocks here in the U.S. could have further to go on this long first leg up. Some of the positive signs are that labor markets are showing improvement, with headline unemployment below 7%. Third-quarter GDP growth came in at 4.1%. Inflation is barely 1%. We have a tentative budget deal, and the Fed has tapered only marginally while saying they intend to keep rates low into the foreseeable future.

The economy isn't too hot or too cold, which means the Fed isn't backing off its backstopping anytime soon. That's a goldilocks scenario for U.S. equities. Low interest rates will continue to support corporate balance sheets and the Fed will keep serving up its porridge.

My reluctance stems from some of the same positive attributes equities have enjoyed. The positive trend in headline unemployment belies the disturbing number of workers falling off work rolls because they can't find jobs and have given up looking.

The GDP's 4.1% showing is the biggest rise in a long time and unlikely to continue. Any serious backing up of the upward GDP trend in the fourth quarter will set up a much closer look at first-quarter GDP. If that isn't substantially better than 2.5% - and it should be, given the market's dramatic rise - markets could get jittery.

Inflation, at least headline inflation, looks tame. But consumers are seeing higher prices everywhere, especially for groceries, and those rises come in the face of depressed commodity prices. That could change. If we see solid above-trend growth globally into 2014's first two quarters, it will change, and commodity prices will rise quickly.

And about that budget deal... The fight over the future of deficit spending and the country's borrowing ceiling is far from over.

That leaves the Fed as the only reliable gift giver to the equity markets. If the Fed continues to expand its balance sheet, at some point markets could lose faith in the Fed's long-term solvency.

If that happens, the long awaited correction will turn to a rout.

A Plan to Profit, Wherever You Stand As the bull market's long first leg up continues higher, it's time to start planning for the coming correction. which we will eventually get and which may come in early to mid-2014. And it's time to start mapping out how and when to load up for the second leg higher.

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If you own shares now and have enjoyed the tremendous upward trajectory, don't be greedy: Nothing goes up forever.

Keep raising your stop-loss orders to lock in rising profits. If you get stopped out because you rang the cash register, don't rush to get back into the same stocks, at least not yet.

If you've been sitting on the sidelines, start buying. But for sidelined buyers, it's too dangerous to chase high-flying momentum stocks now. There will be plenty of time for that after markets take a break. Instead buy solid names that offer reasonable dividend yields. I'm talking about stocks like General Electric Company (NYSE: GE), Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL), and Microsoft Corporation (Nasdaq: MSFT), along with huge energy companies and a smattering of rich dividend-paying REITS.

If these stocks, which should be your core holdings (because they are huge companies, have tons of cash, are buying back their shares, pay dividends, and aren't going anywhere), fall in price, you should be adding or averaging down when lower prices make their dividend yields better and lower your cost basis.

The reason I'm recommending buying now is that the market could go higher before it takes a breather, but if it falls and you're adding to new core positions you're back in where you should be. You have to be in it to win it.

There's no guarantee we'll see a correction in early to mid-2014, but most of the metrics I follow, some of which are proprietary indicators I've created that have served me exceptionally well, are in fact pointing to possible market stress in 2014's first two quarters.

Trading the markets and investing for the long term necessitates having a plan at the ready if a selloff happens. No one knows how deep or how long any correction will be. But everyone knows buying when share prices essentially go on sale is a winning strategy.

Because we're heading a lot higher in the years ahead (because deleveraging will eventually run its course, especially if central banks get out of the way and stop manipulating rates and markets), loading up on any significant pullback will be the key to maximizing your returns and increasing you wealth.

For Exceptional Gains, Load Up On a Correction In my perfect world, we get a good correction in the coming quarters, and fluffed-up stocks come down to earth and core investment stocks present better entry points.

A consolidation at lower prices with an attendant selloff in commodities because of a global growth slowdown in 2014 would be a flashing green light to load up on both equities and commodities for the next bull market leg higher.

I'm in the market and I'm doing what I recommend here.

I'm thrilled with my stocks' performance but I'm not greedy; I'm raising my stop-loss orders to lock in profits on a 5% pullback in the market and up to a 15% pullback in most of my individual stock positions. I'm adding to core positions on any dips.

And, yes, I am hopeful we get a correction. Why? Because I want to apply the sidelined cash I've been sitting on (amassed by taking profits on high fliers) into cheaper shares and load up on the way down with the "dry powder" I'll have from my stops getting hit.

Why? Because this is just the first leg of a global generational bull market.

I want to retire - and retire rich - on the money I'm going to make in the markets in the next five to 10 years.

Whether or not you're near retirement, you can pocket the same gains by knowing this bull market and sticking to your plan.

Thursday, February 6, 2014

Finra board set to reconsider BrokerCheck website link

Finra next week plans to revive a proposal that would require brokers to include a link on their website and other online communications leading investors to their profile on BrokerCheck, a database which contains information about their disciplinary history.

The board is scheduled to consider the proposal at its Feb. 13 meeting.

The original rule was withdrawn last April after industry resistance. It isn't clear how the rule has been modified since then.

“The last one was too vague and too costly in terms of implementation and monitoring,” said Bryan Ward, a partner at Sutherland Asbill & Brennan.

The initial rule would have required Finra members to include a “prominent description of, and link to” the individual's BrokerCheck page, rather than its home page. Currently, brokers must provide to customers annually in writing the BrokerCheck hotline number and Finra website address.

Finra didn't make clear what “prominent” means or which social-media sites the rule covered, Mr. Ward said.

“They're going to have to work with the industry and get into the weeds, and come up with specific and workable guidance,” said Mr. Ward, who suggested a pilot program involving volunteer firms.

One of the problems with Finra's first attempt at the rule is that it failed to take into account the character and space limitations in social media that make it difficult to include the BrokerCheck link, said David Bellaire, executive vice president and general counsel of the Financial Services Institute.

“Fiinra's earlier proposal didn't sync with how our members are using these platforms to remain in contact with their clients,” said Mr. Bellaire, whose group represents independent broker-dealers and financial advisers. “The original proposal was impossible to comply with while using some of the common Internet communication tools like Twitter.”

Best Stocks To Invest In

Peter Chepucavage, general counsel at Plexus Consulting Group, wrote one of the two dozen comment letters that Finra received on the first proposal. He has concerns about the information in BrokerCheck and the regulatory burden that firms would face in adding links to their online presence.

“I don't like BrokerCheck because it discloses a lot of non-relevant materials,” he said. “Anytime you have to change your website, i! t involves costs, especially for small broker-dealers.”

It is likely that the Finra board will approve the new rule, which could cause brokers to try to remove disciplinary actions from their BrokerCheck pages, according to Mr. Ward.

“We could see an increase in expungement requests,” Mr. Ward said.

The Finra board will tackle expungement by considering a rule that would prohibit basing the settlements of customer disputes on the customer's agreement that the brokers' record be cleared. The board also will address the definitions of “non-public” and “public” arbitrators.

Nearly every brokerage customer agreement contains a clause that requires that disputes be settled through an arbitration process conducted by Finra, the industry-funded broker-dealer regulator.

Wednesday, February 5, 2014

Why Silver Is About to Bounce Back

Silver prices today remain discounted due to last week's drop, creating a perfect window of opportunity for investors to buy the commodity before it heads higher.

Last week saw a 3.71% decline in silver prices, which ended January down 4%.

That followed a rough 2013, when the precious metal started out the year at $31 and ended at $19.50 for a 36.3% drop.

But today silver prices inched forward, opening at $18.62 per ounce, up 1.06% since Friday.

It's just the beginning for what's about to happen to the precious metal in the weeks ahead...

Silver Prices in 2014

The first strong indicator silver is about to pop requires a look back to early December.

Silver-futures short positions of all speculators (in the Commitment of Traders COT report from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission) hit a current bull-market high of 54,000 contracts.

"This kind of extreme often signals a strong performance in the silver price over the next 1 to 3 months," Money Morning Resource Specialist Peter Krauth said.

Another good sign for silver prices in the weeks ahead is the more recent COT reports.

"They show speculators have already pared back their short bets considerably, so this reversing trend is playing out in textbook fashion," Krauth said. "We saw this happen in each of the past three years, and conditions look ripe for a repeat."

But perhaps the biggest indicator silver prices are about to pop is that exchange-traded fund (ETF) managers are drastically increasing their holdings.

"Their physical holdings bifurcated during 2013, saying a lot about investors' mindset," Krauth said.

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The two flagship physically backed precious metals ETFs are iShares Silver Trust (ETF) (NYSE ARCA: SLV) and SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSE ARCA: GLD). GLD investors sold right out of the gate as 2013 started. From record-high inventories, GLD saw its level of gold bars rapidly decline more than 40% by year's end.

When the gold price panic hit in April, GLD lost 15% of its holdings within just a month and a half.

But SLV investors decided to hold onto their shares despite silver's plummeting price.

In fact, during both the early and late parts of 2013, SLV's silver holdings were actually up from their average 2012 levels.

Top Gold Stocks To Own For 2015

"The lower silver prices clearly didn't scare investors away from the major silver ETF," Krauth said.

Finally, this chart shows four more reasons why silver's ready to pop:

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum indicator that attempts to determine whether an asset is over- or undervalued. If the RSI indicator hits 70 or higher, it's considered to be overbought. Here, the RSI is safely below the threshold. Silver has strong support at the $19.75 level and will likely break out of its wedge pattern (represented by the converging arrows in the middle graph) soon, Krauth expects to the upside. Target prices: Initial level is $23, if that's taken out, silver could rally to $25. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) momentum indicator shows a healthy positive divergence (long-term and short-term prices moving together), pointing to a rally.

Krauth also gave investors the best company to invest in to play this silver move...

Tuesday, February 4, 2014

Where's the S&P Headed From Here? Higher!

BALTIMORE (Stockpickr) -- To someone who just started investing in the last year, 2014 has been a bloodbath. In the first month of the year, the S&P 500 shed 3.56%. If stocks continued to sell off at this rate for the rest of the year, it'd make 2008 look like a cakewalk.

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But that doesn't mean that it's time to pull your cash out of the market and invest it in a backyard bunker. As we enter February's first trading session, stocks still look very attractive.

Yes, I realize that sounds hard to swallow. If stocks are on track to one-up 2008's selloff, how can it still look like a good time to buy them? But as I'll show you, nearly every data point that supports an end to the upward trend in stocks is horribly skewed.

So as things stand now, February looks like the month to hit the "buy" button again. We're still in a "buy the dips" market.

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As investors, we have short memories. For instance, as soon as the calendar flipped over to 2014, we suddenly forgot that corrections aren't unprecedented for this market. Even though the market gave us eerily similar corrections in October, and in August, again in June, another time in March, and yet again back in January of last year, somehow this latest correction is jarring.

Even though the other recent corrections were larger in size and duration than this one, our January correction has somehow been scary.

And even though this correction was extremely predictable, it caught us off guard.

But you didn't have to be some kind of stock market sage to figure out that stocks were about to correct. The S&P 500 has been trading in an extremely well-defined price channel all the way up (you can see it here), and it finally hit its head on resistance in January. That means that we were either about to correct, or this time it was suddenly going to be different for some reason.

Likewise, as the S&P gets closer to the bottom of its trend channel, we've got to ask ourselves whether we're coming up on another textbook buying opportunity for stocks, or whether "This time, it's different."

There's a reason why savvy investors say that those four words are the most expensive in the English language.

But just to cover our bases, let's take a look at why this time it might in fact be different -- and why those reasons are bogus.

Stocks Are Overpriced

The chorus of "stocks are expensive" has been getting louder and louder over the past few months, but that doesn't necessarily make it true.

As I write, the S&P 500's P/E ratio (based on trailing 12 month earnings) sits around 18.9. While that's on the high end of the index's historic range, it's hardly at an extreme right now.

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Just for comparison's sake, the S&P would need to rally to 3,115 tomorrow to reach the peak P/E ratio the index hit during the dot-com bubble. Stocks might be "kind of expensive-ish," but they're certainly not expensive.

P/E doesn't tell the whole story either. For instance, it leaves out cash, something that's sitting on corporate balance sheets in record amounts right now. At last count, the stocks in the S&P 500 held more than $1.25 trillion in cash on their books, enough to pay for around 25% of the nominal value of each share of the big index.

Take that record cash balance out of the S&P's valuation, and it starts to look a whole lot more average.

The same problem is true of measures like Shiller P/E, a number that normalizes earnings over a decade to avoid skew from unsustainable profits. Problem is, when you normalize earnings over a protracted economic recession, replete with huge GAAP-induced non-cash earnings volatility, you get a number that's not all that useful.

It's not sexy or headline-grabbing to say that stock market valuations are pretty average right now. But they are.

>>5 Stocks With Big Insider Buying

A Lack of Real Corrections

Here's a troubling statistic: It's been more than two years since the S&P 500 has corrected at least 10%. And we haven't had a healthy 5% correction day in more than a full year. If that doesn't show irrational exuberance, what does?

There's just one problem with that. We also haven't seen a 5% rally day since March 2009. That's something like 1,800 days. Likewise, this rally has been filled with proportionate corrections all the way up; it's been nothing if not orderly.

In my view, those scary statistics say more about prolonged low volatility than they do about a correction-free market. True, the big down moves have been few and far between, but so have the big up moves.

A lot of that volatility vacuum has had to do with a lack of participation from retail investors. That's right, despite some folks saying that being long stocks is a crowded trade in 2014, the fact remains that U.S. stock ownership is just 2% above the record low set last year.

>>5 Industrial Stocks to Skirt the Selling

Top 10 Blue Chip Companies To Invest In 2015

That's a statistic that's been echoed by the comparatively low trading volumes that our recent rally has propped itself up on. This has been an institutional rally, not a retail rally. A lot of investors who got burned in the market crash five years ago are only just starting to warm up to equities again.

By and large, retail investors don't own stocks -- and that means that there's a lot of dry powder sitting on the sidelines this year. Don't underestimate the buying power retail investors still hold.

The Line in the Sand

Does all of the preceding mean that stocks are guaranteed to bounce higher this week with absolute-100%-stake-my-life-on-it certainty? Of course not. But it does mean that a move higher is the high-probability trade. And in the real world, the high-probability trade is the best thing we can ask for as investors.

On the other hand, the line in the sand gets drawn in just below 1,750. If the S&P 500 can't catch a bid along its long-term trendline at that level, then it's time to start questioning the longevity of this rally. Price action on Thursday and Friday looked a whole lot like sellers were pumping their brakes as the S&P 500 approached a key support level. That's a good indicator.

Ultimately, the big stock indices have been extremely technically obedient for the last year and change, so, until the technical story changes, I'll be buying the dips.

-- Written by Jonas Elmerraji in Baltimore.

Monday, February 3, 2014

McDonald’s to workers: Don’t forget to tip pool…

Bad move, McDonald's? As fast food workers walked off the job in 100 cities Thursday amid demands for higher pay, the fast food giant thought it was a good idea to dish out some holiday tip suggestions to its employees — like how much to tip your massage therapist or pool cleaner.

Posted on its employee resource website, the now-deleted suggestions, including one week's pay for your au pair, add up to hundreds of dollars or more — pretty steep for employees who largely earn just above minimum wage, NBC News reports, though it notes the guide also said to tip based on "your budget."

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"This is content provided by a third-party partner and quotes from one of the best-known etiquette gurus, Emily Post," a McDonald's rep explained. "We continue to review the resource and will ask the vendor to make changes as needed."

Meanwhile, some fast food workers who walked off the job Thursday didn't lose a day's pay thanks to union-backed groups like Fast Food Forward, CNN reports.

"I have bills to pay and we don't get enough money," said a single mom and Checkers employee, who didn't show up for work but was paid what she'd make in a day — about $50 — so she could rally outside a Brooklyn Wendy's. "If they weren't paying me, I couldn't afford to be here."

Other helpful budget tips from McDonald's included its suggestions that McDonald's employees get a second job and sell their stuff to raise extra cash.

Newser is a USA TODAY content partner providing general news, commentary and coverage from around the Web. Its content is produced independently of USA TODAY.

Sunday, February 2, 2014

Amazon â€“ A Dynamic Shift in its Business Model

As promised in a previous article, today I will look into the E-Commerce King: Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) as an option to eBay Inc. (EBAY).

Growing the Old-Fashioned Way

Years ago the company was the biggest bookstore in the world, in the recent years it has expanded into a number of other product categories allowing other businesses and individuals to sell new, used and collectible products on its Web sites through its Merchant and Amazon Marketplace programs. The company has organized its operations into two principal segments: North America (57% of 2012 net sales) and International (43%). In the last quarter the company recorded earnings that were in-line with Zacks estimates, so let´s have a look at main drivers for the upcoming quarters.

Long Term Growth Opportunities

The industry pattern has shifted from catalog to internet sales as consumers are increasingly buying things online. Forrester Research projects that U.S. e-commerce sales will increase from $231 billion in 2012 to $370 billion in 2016. So the growth of the e-commerce industry demonstrates strong potential for increased Internet usage and e-commerce sales abroad which we consider a key factor for the company in this fast-growing market.

Double-Digit Growth

Due to significant opportunity within emerging markets (like India, China, and Brazil) the international segment could boost earnings in the next quarters. It is essential for the company develops and operates the buying process to increase e-commerce, in a platform like Paypal´s from eBay.

Valuation

In terms of valuation, the stock sells at a trailing P/E of 1349x, trading at a premium compared to the industry average of 18.2x. We have to take into consideration that a higher P/E ratio than its peers can signify a more expensive stock or higher growth expectations. Analysts' expectations imply a forward P/E of 143.52. To use another metric, its price-to-book ratio of 19.5 indicates a premium versus the industry average of 1.7x (a! higher price-to-book ratio makes a stock less attractive) and the price-to-sales ratio of 2.51x is above the industry average of 0.73x.

Investors care about total returns, which consist of share-price appreciation plus dividends paid, which in this stock does not apply. In terms of stock price appreciation, Amazon's stock price is up 67.3% in the last 12 months, and in a five-year period the comparison versus the SPY is tremendous as we can see it in the next chart.

[ Enlarge Image ]

Regarding profitability measures, return on equity (ROE) and return on assets (ROA) are at negative levels. We have seen the evolution for the prior ten years of ROE in a previous article.

Final Comment

In my point of view, an extremely important risk inherent in Amazon's business model is that it is characterized by low switching costs when shopping online. The firm must focus on technologies investments as they are key drivers for long-term growth opportunities.

Hedge fund gurus like Stanley Drucken Miller, Steve Mandel and Murray Stahl bought this stock. Meanwhile, Jim Simons, Louis Moore Bacon, Ken Fisher and Tom Gayner added Amazon to their existing positions. I would advise fundamental investors to consider adding this stock to theirs as well, as it seems to be an industry in a growth phase.

Disclosure: Damian Illia holds no position in any stocks mentioned.

Also check out: Jim Simons Undervalued Stocks Jim Simons Top Growth Companies Jim Simons High Yield stocks, and Stocks that Jim Simons keeps buying Ken Fisher Undervalued Stocks Ken Fisher Top Growth Companies Ken Fisher High Yield stocks, and Stocks that Ken Fisher keeps buying
About the author:A fundamental analyst at Lonetreeanalytics.com constantly looking for value and income investments.

Visit Damian Illia's Website

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RSS Feed	Monthly Newsletters
The All-In-One Screener	Portfolio Tracking Tool