Caterpillar: How Much Higher Can It Go?

After a dismal 2013, Caterpillar (CAT) has found some love so far this year.

AFP

Caterpillar’s shares have gained 6.6% in 2014, double its 2013 gain of 3.3%, and besting the 7.7% drop in Deere (DE), the 0.4% rise in Terex (TEX), the 0.3% dip in Cummins (CMI) and the 4.5% decline in Joy Global (JOY).

Can the good times continue? Deutsche Bank’s Vishal Shah thinks they can. He explain:

We have a positive bias towards CAT as we believe investors are overly focused on the decline in resource industries revenue, which will likely trough earlier than expected in 2014, and are neglecting the significant growth opportunities within construction segment over the next 3-4 years as well as consistent execution within the power systems segment. Although we expect mining capex to decline by 55% from 2012 peak and trough in 2016-17, we believe the decline in Resource industries revenue will be smaller (down 45%) and shorter (ending in 2014). We expect the aftermarket business (25% of segment revenue) to mitigate some of the downside risk. We also expect CAT to be among the first construction equipment companies to benefit from the non-resi recovery and expect dealers to start building inventory as early as 2014.

It shouldn’t come as a surprise, then, that Shah thinks Caterpillar is going higher–much higher. He initiated Caterpillar as a Buy with a $122 price target, 25% above its current price.

Cummins and Deere, meanwhile, get Buy ratings, with price targets of $170 and $110, respectively. Buy-rate Terex could hit $52, while Hold-rated Joy Global has a price target of $57.

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Shares of Caterpillar have gained 1.1% to $97.25, while Deere has advanced 1% to $85.15, Terex has jumped 2.5% to $43.19, Cummins has risen 0.8% to $141.15 and Joy Global is up 1.1% at $56.50.