Shares of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ ) ticked down 1.1% during regular hours Monday, the last day of trading before it releases its latest quarterly earnings report. Investors displayed hesitation ahead of the report, but this is certainly still a stock to watch once the full results are in.
JNJ made headlines last week after it was ordered by a jury to pay $4.69 billion in a case alleging that its talcum powder product causes ovarian cancer. However, it maintains a healthy and still-growing pharmaceutical segment that has been fueled by recent acquisitions. But given concerns about drug pricing, and JNJ’s position as the first pharmaceutical company to report earnings every quarter, Tuesday’s results will have a big role in shaping investor sentiment.
According to our latest Zacks Consensus Estimates, analysts expect Johnson & Johnson to report earnings of $2.06 per share on $20.25 billion in revenue. These results would mark year-over-year growth rates of 12.6% and 7.5%, respectively.
Investors should also note that JNJ’s consensus earnings projection has trended downward over the course of the quarter. Two negative revisions have caused the Zacks Consensus Estimate to tick one cent lower in the past 90 days. It has seen a positive estimate for the next quarter and next financial year, but at the same time has seen negative estimates across the board. This mixed revision activity has contributed to the stock’s Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Looking at share price performance, JNJ has added 2.7% over the past year. However, the stock has performed poorly as of late, losing nearly 11% on a year-to-date basis. More recently, shares have dropped 4.6% over the trailing 12 weeks.
A strong earnings beat might be what JNJ needs in order to start turning things around. To gauge how likely the company is to outperform estimates tomorrow morning, we can turn to our exclusive Earnings ESP figure.
Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter. The Most Accurate Estimate is a version of the Zacks Consensus whose definition is related to change.
This is done because, generally speaking, when an analyst posts an estimate right before an earnings release, it means that they have fresh information which could potentially be more accurate than what analysts thought about a company two or three months ago.
A positive Earnings ESP paired with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better ranking helps us feel confident about the potential for an earnings beat. In fact, our 10-year backtest has revealed that this methodology has accurately produced a positive surprise 70% of the time.
JNJ currently has an Earnings ESP of 0.24%. This, combined with its Zacks Rank, leaves us optimistic about its chances at beating earnings estimates on Tuesday. It is also worth noting that Johnson & Johnson has not missed earnings in over five years.
Make sure to check back here for our full analysis once Johnson & Johnson reports!
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