Wednesday, March 11, 2015

Yandex: Time to Catch a Falling Knife (YNDX)

To say the last three months have been tough ones for Russian search engine company Yandex NV (NASDAQ:YNDX) would be an understatement. Since the January the January 9th peak of $45.42, YNDX has fallen more than 50%, hitting a low of $21.70 today. Ouch.

As the cliche goes, however, it's always darkest just before down. In stock parlance, it just means that the time to buy into a stock is when it looks like nobody else wants it. Yandex is no exception to that norm, and given the shape and context of today's drubbing, it does indeed look like YNDX is a speculative buy. How's that? Because today looks like a major capitulation for the stock... the point where things literally can't get any worse, starting the transition from a net-selling environment to a net-buying one.

There are three inter-related clues pointing to that end. One of them is the fact that YNDX shares have just been blasted since January, yet still somehow the bears were able to muster a bearish gap this morning. The market doesn't like to leave gaps behind, however, so there's apt to be a lot of bullish pull beginning today.

The second clue that today's action is a pivotal, blowout day is the volume spike. A lot of people are getting in, and a lot of people are getting out. Either way, it points to the same transition from a net-bearish environment to a net-bullish one.

The third and final clue? The shape of today's bar. The open was at the high, then we saw a deep low, and then we saw a very strong push off that low to at least get back to the upper half of today's trading range. It's not a perfect dragonfly doji - a sign of reversal - but it's a pretty good sign, especially knowing how ripe Yandex NV shares are following the steep selloff, and in the shadow of a big bearish gap at today's open. In other words, this really does look like a blowout/capitulation day.

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Yes, there's still plenty of risk here as there's still plenty of opportunity for the market to keep chipping away at YNDX. From an odds-making perspective though, today's a good opportunity to take a smart calculated risk on Yandex.

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